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Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)
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HR Q4 Estimate Updated:
Rent Collections 95-97% (inc CERS)
FFO Payout Ratio 40%
AFFO Payout Ratio 48.5%
Bad Debts $6.5M (12M Q3)
Distribution Increase Announced to 8 cents/month
Debt to Assets - 46.8%
NAV per unit $22.41
Full Year FFO 1.66 - Trailing Price to FFO 7.66
Full Year AFFO 1.40 - Trailing Price to AFFO 9.01
This is during a pandemic. Many new developments coming online, a restarting of the economy, and lower borrowing is going to drive up forward earnings pretty quick.
Distributions Increase to 8 cents/unit resulting in FFO payout ratio of 58% or AFFO Payout Ratio 66%. I expect this to be in Q2 2020. Hopefully buybacks are announced first and start soon.
1B Unsecured LOC
3.5B Unencumbered Asset Pool
Bad Debts will be lower due to elimination of CECRA write offs as well as fewer tenant bankruptcies.
There are a lot of unknowns. Converting construction developments to a finished product, such as River Landing could materially improve Q4 result estimates regarding FFO & NAV. River Landing is the largest project completing. HR has stated that leasing was ahead of expectations in residential, and retail started to occupy space in November. However, it is likely they have a few months free rent and won't add much to FFO until Q1/Q2 of 2021. The board will likely take this new FFO and use it as additional tailwinds to support a vote on a distribution increase. If not, buying back units would be a good use of funds until the unit price recovers, then increase distributions in Q2 2021. I believe with 2020 write downs behind us, distribution increases are not only warranted, but also needed to ensure the trust pays out enough distributions to avoid any income tax obligations as a REIT. The focus in 2021 should be recovery of the unit pricing.
$SPG $MAC $BPY $BXP $ARE $FRT $KIM $ALX $CIO $VNQ $WPC $BAM
#D.UN #SRU.UN #SOT.UN #REI.UN #MR.UN
A lot of talk that tax loss selling is now ~30 days in the past. Those that sold for tax loss, are now able to repurchase. If you look at the Charts, majority of tax selling appears to have started around Dec 16th onward. Correlates nicely to the support the last few days. This was a smart move for those that sold as they are able to ride the wave back up in 2021. Time for the REIT recovery (not specific to HR)
$SPG $MAC $BPY $BXP $ARE $FRT $KIM $ALX $WPC
I would take $SPG and $FRT over $O right now.
$KIM trading at 1.65 p/b. that compares with, for example $FRT, which trades at 4.9 p/b
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