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Soon investors will be surprised by the mathematical fact that the needed higher production cost uranium producers will not sell their uranium for short term delivery at a loss 😉
$URNM $URA $DNN $UEC $CCJ
Define “utility uranium inventory (U3O8, UF6, EUP, fuel rods)”!
Inventory according to utility engineers (when I hear them talk) = stockpiles on site and at convertor/enricher under their own account + all the already contracted future U3O8 deliveries.
Inventory according to me = only stockpiles on site and at the convertor/enricher under their own account.
Haha, Utility engineers consider already contracted future uranium deliveries/future uranium productions as part of their current utility inventory.
So already contracted uranium that still needs to be mined and/or that convertors need to buy back and/or that carrytraders need to buy back further in the future because they have been decreasing their stockpiles during backwardation are considered as part of the current utility inventory too than :-)
It’s like Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) saying they have 5,000,000 lbs uranium inventory today. Well, yes and no. They will have those 5 Mlbs by December 2025. By June 2022 only ~50% of those 5 Mlbs uranium have actually been delivered.
—> A lot of double counting of inventories
US utilities only having 16 months worth of stockpiles on site and at convertor/enricher under their own account is close to the truth. They will have to contract for huge amounts of future uranium supply in coming months and in 2023/2024.
I will not be surprised to see the uranium spotprice reach 80 USD/lb in the coming months, due to loss of underfeeding and possible overfeeding combined with the restart of Converdyn Metropolis convertor early 2023.
Do you really think that utilities and convertors that need new produced UF6 will wait to secure more uranium for short term delivery until Metroplis has restarted?
They will secure U3O8 before the restart with delivery in2022/early2023 (imo).
Future will tell how close I was with this call.
And in the longer term (2023/2024) it's simple math. If not, a lot of nuclear reactors will fall short of uranium supply in 2024/2028. Because it takes years to get an uranium project in production. For instance, Arrow of Nexgen Energy needs at least 4 years from the construction start to get it producing the first uranium.
Even utility engineers are now openly saying that they expect much higher uranium prices in the coming months/2023 (One was talking about possibly 100 USD/lb). They expect US utilities to contract huge quantities of new future uranium supply starting a few months from now. Future will tell.
$URA $URNM $DNN $CCJ
Global primary uranium consumption in 2022 is ~200 million pounds annually, while primary uranium supply in 2022 is estimated around 135 million pounds annually (UxC and TradeTech)
The ~65 million supply deficit is filled by decreasing above ground available uranium stockpiles, until they aren’t there anymore ;-)
Those stockpiles in USA and EU reached critical low levels (confirmed a couple weeks ago).
The last commercial available uranium stockpiles will become unavailable even before being sold! :-)
When scarcity of those stockpiles is widely confirmed in near future & upward pressure from lost underfeeding (Confirmed by Cameco 2weeks ago) hits uranium market, owners of those last stockpiles will not sell them anymore or ask 80+ USD/lb for it.
For more information on why, look at my more detailed posts on twitter (Napalm_1_)
$URNM $URA $DNN $URG
Look for my detailed posts on twitter (Napalm_1_), here Yahoo regularly deletes my posts.
Is it because shorters don’t like my bullish posts or is it because I give too much free detailled information to investors disturbing other analysts that make people pay for information, l will never know.
$URG $DNN $UEC $UUUU
I’m a long term uranium bull.
And I know based on my own DD that without the speculation part of the uranium investment, uranium transaction will be signed at at least 80 USD/lb somewhere in the future.
Cameco also confirmed a couple day’s ago that if the market wants to restart their US assets, at least 80 USD/lb will be needed for that.
Due to Material cost, Fuel cost, Labour cost,... going significantly higher, 80USD/lb became the new 60USD/lb
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if we reach 80 USD/lb somewhere in 2022. And if not, it will happen a bit later.
Uranium spotprice is most likely going to significantly overshoot that needed 80 USD/lb, like it did in 2004-2007, but here I only consider the part based on the needs of the sector being 80 USD/lb.
Uranium spotprice on Friday was ~54.50 USD/lb
Friday Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ended with a discount over NAV of 7.02% meaning that SPUT (U.UN on the TSX or SRUUF on the US stock exchange) can be bought at a value of ~50.70 USD/lb for each physical uranium pound they own, while uranium spotprice is at ~54.50 USD/lb at the moment.
What follows is no financial advice. I’m just showing a way to beat inflation in 2022/2024 without being exposed to mining risk by buying physical uranium that needs to be at at least 80USD/lb soon or later. Please do your own DD before investing
(Part1, See next post)
$CCJ $URA $URNM $UUUU $DNN
Very bullish conference call today from Cameco.
Here a couple things from the Q&A after the presentation:
Cameco: “Panic hitting enrichment right now & But the impact of this on UF6 and U3O8 has still to come” :-)
Cameco: “underfeeding is probably gone” :-D
Cameco: “after the enrichment (SWU), we expect conversion to be next”
The consequence: I bought a bit more Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( U.UN on TSX and SRUUF on US stick exchange, if you were wondering)
This isn’t financial advice. Please do your own DD before investing.
$URNM $URA $DNN $UUUU
Now that the market is closed, maybe it could be interesting to look for my 7 tweets long posts of today on twitter. (Napalm_1_ )
In those tweets with important attachments I try to give an idea of the current situation in the nuclear and uranium sector.
And the conclusion of those tweets is that I will not be surprised to see the uranium price reach 80 USD/lb in 2022.
Future will tell if I got it right are not, but read my explanation ;-)
$DNN $GLATF $URG $URNM $URA
Fyi. Jeff Geringer (fuel buyer for many US utilities until a few weeks ago) announced today that he joined the Denison mines team.
Great asset to negotiate with utilities ;-)
$DNN $UEC $URA $URG $NXE
I just added to my DNN and SPUT position, and 2days ago I added to my Global Atomic position
I will not be surprised to see an uranium spotprice around 80$/lb in 2022 and a much higher uranium price in 2023.
The short term uranium supply is significantly lower than the uranium demand for short term delivery + backwardation :-)
$DNN $NXE $UEC $UUUU
GLO.TO or GLATF
I just added to my SPUT position.
I sold somethings non-uranium to do this move.
I invest based on fundamentals and this sell off is just silly.
This isn’t financial advice! Please do your own DD before investing.
$URNM $URA $HURA $DNN
The first signes of carry traders getting into trouble! --> Now we know that there isn't enough uranium available through the spotmarket!
Do you remember that Denison Mines bought 2.500.000 pounds of uranium in March 2021?
Ok, now listen good at what David Cates, CEO of Denison mines, is saying now (today)!!
quote1: "What's very interesting lately, is the interest that our physical uranium has been getting from the uranium market"
quote2: "And some of those folks in the industry are trying to get us liberate those pounds because they are having a hard time getting pounds. But that's not our strategy."
Those "folks" are trying to get the pounds from Denison Mines to have pounds to meet their own commitments, because they are have difficulties to get uranium from the conventional sources in the market.
"To meet their own commitments"
Boys and girls, the only industry participants that have commitments towards utilities and that need to buy from the spotmarket to meet those commitments at the moment are Cameco (only partially) and carry traders (100% of their uranium)!!
The squeeze in the uranium spotmarket is on!
Utilities, Welcome to the negotiation table with the few remaining uranium producers (producers: Cameco, Kazatomprom, Paladin Energy, Energy Fuels, ...) and the few well advanced uranium developers (Global Atomic, Denison mines,...)
Buy uranium stocks, if you didn't already. Don't try to get in at a cheaper price (imo), because Sprott Physical Uranium Trust activated their additional 1billion USD of their ATM yesterday!
Buying now, doesn't mean you can't be more selective in your purchases. There are uranium companies (producers, developers and explorers) that are cheaper than their peers. And even the more expensive once today will continu to go higher from the stock prices today (imo).
A good alternative if you don't know which onces to pick, is an investment in URNM etf.
In my opinion of course.
$UUUU $DNN $URNM $GLATF $URG
Denison mines, Uranium developer in the Athabasca Basin - An overview
Wheeler River project (90% ownership), Phoenix deposit: all-in-cost: 11,57$/lb U3O8 (ISR method), average cash operation cost: 4,33$/lb U3O8 (estimated first production in 2024)
Wheeler River project, Gryphon deposit: all-in-cost: 29,67$/lb U3O8 (ISR method), average cash operation cost: 15,21$/lb U3O8
Waterbury Lake project (64,20% ownership), J Zone deposit: all-in-cost: 24,93$/lb U3O8 (ISR method), average cash operation cost: 12,23$/lb U3O8
Today the spotprice of uranium is around 31$/lb!
Phoenix ramp up planned in 2024, Gryphon ramp up planned in 2030
They are making significant progress on their Phoenix project --> On 9 November 2020 they decided to resume the Environmental Assessment process for Wheeler River
And now they have 2.5 M lb uranium in stock at 29,61$/lb that they even don’t have to mine anymore, that:
- they will sell at a much higher price a view years from now or;
- they can use as a guarantee for financing in 2023/2024.
They have recurrent revenue from their 22,5% stake in the McClean Lake mill
Phoenix project will be permitted under the CEAA 2012 which is a huge benefit tot he project. Other projects under this framwork, permitting averages under 2 years!!
The timing is perfect if you look at the macro fundamentals from now till 2025 and the fast growing structural deficit from 2025
Denison mines is more and more in position to do what Paladin Energy did with the start of Langer Heinrich mine production in the previous bull run (2004/2007)
I’m strongly bullish for the coming months and couple of years
$DNN $UUUU $PALAF $CCJ
I’m also strongly bullish for other uranium companies, like Energy Fuels, UR-energy, Peninsula Energy, Paladin Energy, Boss Resources, UEX Corp,...
And Cameco, URNM etf, HURA etf, ... are no brainer LT investments for those who want to take less risk in their uranium investment
It's funny to see that some short term investors get scared from premarket data.
Premarket data is an easy way to manipulate sentiment of daytraders :-)
But when you take the time to understand the uranium market, you laugh at this stage.
The uranium market is a very tiny sector to invest in and at this moment professional investors want to take position in several uranium companies (phase1). But they want to invest big amounts and that's not so easy in a tiny sector.
So let's scare retail investors in the premarket to create volume in favor of professional investors.
Dear retail investor, your positions can go 20% - 30% lower in the coming weeks/months, but it could also go 30% higher all of a sudden (in one trading day) when:
⁃ big positions are taken;
⁃ shorters buy the shares needed to give those shares back that they borrowed to be able to short earlier;
⁃ the U3O8 price all of a sudden starts to increase fast (phase2 and phase3, Cameco, Orano, Kazatomprom buying U3O8)
Those short term fluctuations don't matter if you look at the multi-bagger potential in the coming years
$NXE $DNN $CCJ $UUUU $URG
Paladin Energy, Peninsula Energy, Boss Resources, Fission Uranium Corp, Goviex Uranium, Global Atomic, UEX Corp, Forsys Metals,...
It keeps getting better and better!!
Yellow Cake today:
"Due to strong investors demand, the company agreed with the joint Bookrunners to increase the size of the Fundraise to approximately USD140 million from approximately USD110 million originally proposed"
==> THOSE ADDITIONAL 30 million USD WILL BE USED TO BUY U3O8 IN THE MARKET (From other places then Kazatomprom ==> meaning from spotmarket!!!)
For more information on this look at my post of yesterday
$CCJ $DNN $UUUU $URG $PALAF
China from + -50GW early 2020 to 70GW by 2025 --> Impact?
Regarding China's proposed target to have + -70GW of nuclear energy domestically by 2025.
From + -50GW to 70GW!
Kevin Bambrough says the following:
"I believe the updated 5 year plan China announced results in an increase of ~ $ 6mm lbs of additional uranium demand per year. That's all of $ pdn production. One country. One update. Their plans and other countries plans will continue to increase each year. Just watch ... "
I made the calculation myself:
1000MW reactor = 145 to 195 tons of U3O8 per year = 320,000 to 430,000 lb/y
20GW extra capacity = 20 times 145 to 195 tons of U3O8 per year = 20 times 320,000 to 430,000 lb/y = 6.4 to 8.6 million lb/y.
So yes, Kevin Bambrough himself is a bit modest in his statement.
6,000,000 lb/y is indeed equal to the entire future annual production of Paladin Energy's Langer Heinrich mine.
And Langer Heinrich is not a small mine like Honeymoon or Kayelekera!
The future production of Lang Heinrich = 2.5 to 3 times the future production of Honeymoon of Kayelekera = 1/3 of the production of Cigar Lake.
The market and the utilities are underestimating what is about to happen in the uranium space, because in addition to China's ambition, there is also:
- the ambition of India
- the renewal and growth of Russian nuclear capacity (and temporary reactor license extensions pending completion of new reactors)
- the restart of Japanese reactors (slower than hoped by the Japanese government, but more than 50% of the pre-fukushima nuclear capacity are gradually being restarted now and in the coming years)
- the massive license renewals of existing reactors in the USA, Canada, France, Spain, Ukraine, ... ==> each new license renewal causes an additional uranium supply negotiation that wasn’t foreseen before!!!
- the construction of reactors in countries other than Russia, China and India: UK, South Korea, Turkey, UAE, ...
- the planned construction of new reactors in Ukraine, Pakistan, Turkey, France, Poland, Egypt, ...
- the future SMRs that will cause an additional big demand for uranium largely concentrated at the start of each SMR !!!
The utilities are cornered and if they don’t act now, they will pay more than 100$/lb for an important part of their future uranium supply!
$UUUU $URG $PALAF $DNN
$DNN $UUUU $PALAF $UEC $URNM
The massive buying of call options for Denison at a strike price of 2,50USD, while the stockprice is at +-1,25USD today, is one of the possibilities for professional commodity traders to secure an acceptable entry point for a big uranium position in Denison mines (Phase1 --> look at my post "Phase1, Phase2, Phase3")
I would not be surprised to see that same strategy appear for other uranium companies
It’s funny, because during this temporary decreasing uranium price with a couple % after a 70% rise of the price in 5 weeks time, short term investors without DD on the matter think that the uranium price rise is over :)
1. But in fact each end of the month (Monday, September, 27, 2021) Nuclear fuel price reporter UxC set Month-end Uranium Spot Price used by market-referenced contracts to set invoice price on deliveries. To reduce costs, traders often try to walk-down Spot price in a "month-end smash".
2. SPUT has still ~850 million USD of their ATM to buy additional uranium, while the high season in the uranium sector has yet to begin (October -March)
3. Those temporary spotprice decreases push tend to push the NAV of SPUT under the share price of SPUT ==> they only need a 1% premium over NAV to activate their ATM to buy additional U3O8 or UF6 in the spotmarket.
I suggest to take advantage of this temporary price decrease to buy uranium company shares
$DNN $UUUU $URG $UEC $NXE
Post of 2days ago:
3 important comments:
1) The last 2days I have read the same incorrect comparison in several financial newspapers.
They keep saying that “Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has bought 24M pounds compared with a total volume in the spotmarket of 92M pounds in 2020”.
Well, there are 2 incorrect assumptions in this sentence!
First. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) only bought 6,379,554 pounds of uranium since the launch of SPUT on July 19th, 2021 : 200,000 pounds before the launch of their first ATM and 6,179,554 pounds since the launch of their first ATM. The remaining 18,094,658 pounds SPUT has, were bought by Uranium Participation between their IPO in 2005 and July 18th, 2021. So those 18,094,658 pounds DIDN’T HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SPOTMARKET the last 3.5 weeks, because those pounds were bought in the spotmarkt well before the start of SPUT.
Second. It’s true that the total volume of U3O8 transactions in the spotmarket in 2020 amounted to 92M and 63.3M pounds in 2019.
BUT those are NOT the REAL annual amounts of U3O8 that supply consumption through the spotmarket!
Only a small fraction of the total annual transaction volume of U3O8 through the spot market were and still are transactions WITH PHYSICAL DELIVERY FOR CONSUMPTION.
The main part of those transactions are back and forth transactions between a couple financial players WITHOUT PHYSICAL DELIVERY FOR CONSUMPTION.
So the main part of the annual total volume of U3O8 transaction is the result of many back an forth transactions of the SAME couple of 100,000 pounds U3O8, blowing the annual transaction volume of U3O8 up!
So the real total volume of U3O8 delivery through the spotmarket and LEAVING the spotmarket for good is much smaller than the total annual transaction volume of U3O8 through the spotmarket!
Many analists estimate that the annual amount of pounds of U3O8 that supply REAL CONSUMPTION by utilities (directly or indirectly (Cameco buying to sell to their customers)) through the spotmarket in 2019, 2020 was around 20 million pounds annually.
Conclusion is that investors need to compare 6,379,554 pounds of uranium bought by SPUT until yesterday (2days ago) compared with those approximately 20M pounds of U3O8 entering the spotmarket annually, not 92M pounds!!
That’s the reason why SPUT has such a big impact on the spotmarket now, because they are not doing back and forth transactions with the same pounds of U3O8. They are buying those pounds to take them out of the market DEFINITELY! And by consequence, that’s the reason why it was so easy for uranium bulls and hedge funds to drive the uranium spotprice higher until 40 USD/lb and why it will be easy to drive the uranium spotprice much much higher than 40 USD/lb in the future.
And it’s much more easy than the silversqueeze, because you don’t have “uranium on paper” like you have “silver on paper” in the silver market!
Note: SPUT is NOT going to sell U3O8 in the coming months and years, because they need to become bigger to increase their liquidity. That liquidity is important to be more attractive for certain funds etc.
So rest assured, SPUT needs to increase their U3O8 and UF6 reserves considerably! SPUT will need to buy much more than those 6M pounds U3O8 bought until now to achieve that.
$DNN $UUUU $GLATF $FCUUF $URNM
And it keeps going on...
UEC, Encore Energy and Peninsula Energy just announced additional spotprice purchases.
Note: There is a difference between UEC and EnCore Energy on the one hand and Peninsula Energy on the other hand.
Peninsula Energy is actually a uranium company with LT contracts with utilities in place like Cameco and Kazatomprom buying uranium in the spot to fullfile long term commitments.
UEC, EnCore Energy, Denison mines and Boss Resources (Honeymoon in care and maintenance) are developers that buy uranium as a guarantee for future LT contracts they yet need to get. They will hold that uranium much longer then Peninsula Energy.
Peninsula Energy will sell those pounds in 2022
$UEC $DNN $URNM $CCJ
The last 3 weeks UEC (2d ago), Denison mines (3d ago) and Yellow Cake announced they will take 7,200,000 lb of U3O8 out of the market
According to TradeTech, there is only 3 million pounds of active uranium supply in the entire spot market as of Friday. 7.2 Mlb compared to only 3 Mlb!
Next: Big brother, Uranium Participation announcing the same as Yellow Cake, starting to buy additional U3O8 from the spot!
Followed by the U3O8 spot buying from uranium producers Cameco, Orano, Kazatomprom,...
To put those volumes in perspectif.
That’s 7.2M lb U3O8 that will be purchased WITH PHYSICAL DELIVERY in the spotmarket, while the total annual volume traded in the spotmarket (mainly back and forth transactions WITHOUT PHYSICAL DELIVERY) in 2019 was 63.3Mlb.
While uranium demand from utilities is price inelastic!
Fyi, this is posted on different boards simultaneously.
$DNN $UUUU $URG $UEC $NXE
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