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Denison Mines Corp. (DNN)

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1,1800-0,0700 (-5,60%)
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1,2000 +0,02 (+1,69%)
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  • N
    The first signes of carry traders getting into trouble! --> Now we know that there isn't enough uranium available through the spotmarket!

    Hi everyone,

    Do you remember that Denison Mines bought 2.500.000 pounds of uranium in March 2021?

    Ok, now listen good at what David Cates, CEO of Denison mines, is saying now (today)!!

    quote1: "What's very interesting lately, is the interest that our physical uranium has been getting from the uranium market"

    quote2: "And some of those folks in the industry are trying to get us liberate those pounds because they are having a hard time getting pounds. But that's not our strategy."

    Those "folks" are trying to get the pounds from Denison Mines to have pounds to meet their own commitments, because they are have difficulties to get uranium from the conventional sources in the market.

    "To meet their own commitments"

    Boys and girls, the only industry participants that have commitments towards utilities and that need to buy from the spotmarket to meet those commitments at the moment are Cameco (only partially) and carry traders (100% of their uranium)!!

    The squeeze in the uranium spotmarket is on!

    Utilities, Welcome to the negotiation table with the few remaining uranium producers (producers: Cameco, Kazatomprom, Paladin Energy, Energy Fuels, ...) and the few well advanced uranium developers (Global Atomic, Denison mines,...)

    Buy uranium stocks, if you didn't already. Don't try to get in at a cheaper price (imo), because Sprott Physical Uranium Trust activated their additional 1billion USD of their ATM yesterday!

    Buying now, doesn't mean you can't be more selective in your purchases. There are uranium companies (producers, developers and explorers) that are cheaper than their peers. And even the more expensive once today will continu to go higher from the stock prices today (imo).

    A good alternative if you don't know which onces to pick, is an investment in URNM etf.

    In my opinion of course.


  • N
    Denison mines, Uranium developer in the Athabasca Basin - An overview

    Wheeler River project (90% ownership), Phoenix deposit: all-in-cost: 11,57$/lb U3O8 (ISR method), average cash operation cost: 4,33$/lb U3O8 (estimated first production in 2024)

    Wheeler River project, Gryphon deposit: all-in-cost: 29,67$/lb U3O8 (ISR method), average cash operation cost: 15,21$/lb U3O8

    Waterbury Lake project (64,20% ownership), J Zone deposit: all-in-cost: 24,93$/lb U3O8 (ISR method), average cash operation cost: 12,23$/lb U3O8

    Today the spotprice of uranium is around 31$/lb!

    Phoenix ramp up planned in 2024, Gryphon ramp up planned in 2030

    They are making significant progress on their Phoenix project --> On 9 November 2020 they decided to resume the Environmental Assessment process for Wheeler River

    And now they have 2.5 M lb uranium in stock at 29,61$/lb that they even don’t have to mine anymore, that:
    - they will sell at a much higher price a view years from now or;
    - they can use as a guarantee for financing in 2023/2024.

    They have recurrent revenue from their 22,5% stake in the McClean Lake mill

    Phoenix project will be permitted under the CEAA 2012 which is a huge benefit tot he project. Other projects under this framwork, permitting averages under 2 years!!

    The timing is perfect if you look at the macro fundamentals from now till 2025 and the fast growing structural deficit from 2025

    Denison mines is more and more in position to do what Paladin Energy did with the start of Langer Heinrich mine production in the previous bull run (2004/2007)

    I’m strongly bullish for the coming months and couple of years


    I’m also strongly bullish for other uranium companies, like Energy Fuels, UR-energy, Peninsula Energy, Paladin Energy, Boss Resources, UEX Corp,...

    And Cameco, URNM etf, HURA etf, ... are no brainer LT investments for those who want to take less risk in their uranium investment

  • N
    China from + -50GW early 2020 to 70GW by 2025 --> Impact?

    Hi everyone,
    Regarding China's proposed target to have + -70GW of nuclear energy domestically by 2025.
    From + -50GW to 70GW!
    Kevin Bambrough says the following:
    "I believe the updated 5 year plan China announced results in an increase of ~ $ 6mm lbs of additional uranium demand per year. That's all of $ pdn production. One country. One update. Their plans and other countries plans will continue to increase each year. Just watch ... "
    I made the calculation myself:
    1000MW reactor = 145 to 195 tons of U3O8 per year = 320,000 to 430,000 lb/y
    20GW extra capacity = 20 times 145 to 195 tons of U3O8 per year = 20 times 320,000 to 430,000 lb/y = 6.4 to 8.6 million lb/y.
    So yes, Kevin Bambrough himself is a bit modest in his statement.
    6,000,000 lb/y is indeed equal to the entire future annual production of Paladin Energy's Langer Heinrich mine.
    And Langer Heinrich is not a small mine like Honeymoon or Kayelekera!
    The future production of Lang Heinrich = 2.5 to 3 times the future production of Honeymoon of Kayelekera = 1/3 of the production of Cigar Lake.
    The market and the utilities are underestimating what is about to happen in the uranium space, because in addition to China's ambition, there is also:
    - the ambition of India
    - the renewal and growth of Russian nuclear capacity (and temporary reactor license extensions pending completion of new reactors)
    - the restart of Japanese reactors (slower than hoped by the Japanese government, but more than 50% of the pre-fukushima nuclear capacity are gradually being restarted now and in the coming years)
    - the massive license renewals of existing reactors in the USA, Canada, France, Spain, Ukraine, ... ==> each new license renewal causes an additional uranium supply negotiation that wasn’t foreseen before!!!
    - the construction of reactors in countries other than Russia, China and India: UK, South Korea, Turkey, UAE, ...
    - the planned construction of new reactors in Ukraine, Pakistan, Turkey, France, Poland, Egypt, ...
    - the future SMRs that will cause an additional big demand for uranium largely concentrated at the start of each SMR !!!
    The utilities are cornered and if they don’t act now, they will pay more than 100$/lb for an important part of their future uranium supply!


  • N
    And it keeps going on...

    UEC, Encore Energy and Peninsula Energy just announced additional spotprice purchases.

    Note: There is a difference between UEC and EnCore Energy on the one hand and Peninsula Energy on the other hand.

    Peninsula Energy is actually a uranium company with LT contracts with utilities in place like Cameco and Kazatomprom buying uranium in the spot to fullfile long term commitments.

    UEC, EnCore Energy, Denison mines and Boss Resources (Honeymoon in care and maintenance) are developers that buy uranium as a guarantee for future LT contracts they yet need to get. They will hold that uranium much longer then Peninsula Energy.

    Peninsula Energy will sell those pounds in 2022


  • N
    It keeps getting better and better!!

    Yellow Cake today:

    "Due to strong investors demand, the company agreed with the joint Bookrunners to increase the size of the Fundraise to approximately USD140 million from approximately USD110 million originally proposed"

    ==> THOSE ADDITIONAL 30 million USD WILL BE USED TO BUY U3O8 IN THE MARKET (From other places then Kazatomprom ==> meaning from spotmarket!!!)

    For more information on this look at my post of yesterday


  • N
    It's funny to see that some short term investors get scared from premarket data.

    Premarket data is an easy way to manipulate sentiment of daytraders :-)

    But when you take the time to understand the uranium market, you laugh at this stage.


    The uranium market is a very tiny sector to invest in and at this moment professional investors want to take position in several uranium companies (phase1). But they want to invest big amounts and that's not so easy in a tiny sector.

    So let's scare retail investors in the premarket to create volume in favor of professional investors.

    Dear retail investor, your positions can go 20% - 30% lower in the coming weeks/months, but it could also go 30% higher all of a sudden (in one trading day) when:
    ⁃ big positions are taken;
    ⁃ shorters buy the shares needed to give those shares back that they borrowed to be able to short earlier;
    ⁃ the U3O8 price all of a sudden starts to increase fast (phase2 and phase3, Cameco, Orano, Kazatomprom buying U3O8)

    Those short term fluctuations don't matter if you look at the multi-bagger potential in the coming years

    Paladin Energy, Peninsula Energy, Boss Resources, Fission Uranium Corp, Goviex Uranium, Global Atomic, UEX Corp, Forsys Metals,...

  • N

    The massive buying of call options for Denison at a strike price of 2,50USD, while the stockprice is at +-1,25USD today, is one of the possibilities for professional commodity traders to secure an acceptable entry point for a big uranium position in Denison mines (Phase1 --> look at my post "Phase1, Phase2, Phase3")

    I would not be surprised to see that same strategy appear for other uranium companies

  • N
    It’s funny, because during this temporary decreasing uranium price with a couple % after a 70% rise of the price in 5 weeks time, short term investors without DD on the matter think that the uranium price rise is over :)

    1. But in fact each end of the month (Monday, September, 27, 2021) Nuclear fuel price reporter UxC set Month-end Uranium Spot Price used by market-referenced contracts to set invoice price on deliveries. To reduce costs, traders often try to walk-down Spot price in a "month-end smash".
    2. SPUT has still ~850 million USD of their ATM to buy additional uranium, while the high season in the uranium sector has yet to begin (October -March)
    3. Those temporary spotprice decreases push tend to push the NAV of SPUT under the share price of SPUT ==> they only need a 1% premium over NAV to activate their ATM to buy additional U3O8 or UF6 in the spotmarket.

    I suggest to take advantage of this temporary price decrease to buy uranium company shares

  • N
    Hi everyone,

    Post of 2days ago:

    3 important comments:

    1) The last 2days I have read the same incorrect comparison in several financial newspapers.

    They keep saying that “Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has bought 24M pounds compared with a total volume in the spotmarket of 92M pounds in 2020”.

    Well, there are 2 incorrect assumptions in this sentence!

    First. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) only bought 6,379,554 pounds of uranium since the launch of SPUT on July 19th, 2021 : 200,000 pounds before the launch of their first ATM and 6,179,554 pounds since the launch of their first ATM. The remaining 18,094,658 pounds SPUT has, were bought by Uranium Participation between their IPO in 2005 and July 18th, 2021. So those 18,094,658 pounds DIDN’T HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SPOTMARKET the last 3.5 weeks, because those pounds were bought in the spotmarkt well before the start of SPUT.

    Second. It’s true that the total volume of U3O8 transactions in the spotmarket in 2020 amounted to 92M and 63.3M pounds in 2019.

    BUT those are NOT the REAL annual amounts of U3O8 that supply consumption through the spotmarket!

    Only a small fraction of the total annual transaction volume of U3O8 through the spot market were and still are transactions WITH PHYSICAL DELIVERY FOR CONSUMPTION.

    The main part of those transactions are back and forth transactions between a couple financial players WITHOUT PHYSICAL DELIVERY FOR CONSUMPTION.

    So the main part of the annual total volume of U3O8 transaction is the result of many back an forth transactions of the SAME couple of 100,000 pounds U3O8, blowing the annual transaction volume of U3O8 up!

    So the real total volume of U3O8 delivery through the spotmarket and LEAVING the spotmarket for good is much smaller than the total annual transaction volume of U3O8 through the spotmarket!

    Many analists estimate that the annual amount of pounds of U3O8 that supply REAL CONSUMPTION by utilities (directly or indirectly (Cameco buying to sell to their customers)) through the spotmarket in 2019, 2020 was around 20 million pounds annually.

    Conclusion is that investors need to compare 6,379,554 pounds of uranium bought by SPUT until yesterday (2days ago) compared with those approximately 20M pounds of U3O8 entering the spotmarket annually, not 92M pounds!!

    That’s the reason why SPUT has such a big impact on the spotmarket now, because they are not doing back and forth transactions with the same pounds of U3O8. They are buying those pounds to take them out of the market DEFINITELY! And by consequence, that’s the reason why it was so easy for uranium bulls and hedge funds to drive the uranium spotprice higher until 40 USD/lb and why it will be easy to drive the uranium spotprice much much higher than 40 USD/lb in the future.

    And it’s much more easy than the silversqueeze, because you don’t have “uranium on paper” like you have “silver on paper” in the silver market!

    Note: SPUT is NOT going to sell U3O8 in the coming months and years, because they need to become bigger to increase their liquidity. That liquidity is important to be more attractive for certain funds etc.

    So rest assured, SPUT needs to increase their U3O8 and UF6 reserves considerably! SPUT will need to buy much more than those 6M pounds U3O8 bought until now to achieve that.

  • N

    China approved the construction of five nuclear power units, with total installed capacity of 4.9 GW, roughly 10% of the country’s total, two sources said, as Beijing strives for alternatives to fossil fuel to meet its climate goals.

    China decided to go from +-50GW nuclear power in 2020 to 70GW of nuclear power in 2021 in China! And now they are pushing trough with new approvements and new reactor construction starts.

    Construction Officially Begins Of Two New Hualong One Reactors At Changjiang :The Independent Global Nuclear News Agency

  • N
    The last 3 weeks UEC (2d ago), Denison mines (3d ago) and Yellow Cake announced they will take 7,200,000 lb of U3O8 out of the market

    According to TradeTech, there is only 3 million pounds of active uranium supply in the entire spot market as of Friday. 7.2 Mlb compared to only 3 Mlb!

    Next: Big brother, Uranium Participation announcing the same as Yellow Cake, starting to buy additional U3O8 from the spot!

    Followed by the U3O8 spot buying from uranium producers Cameco, Orano, Kazatomprom,...

    To put those volumes in perspectif.

    That’s 7.2M lb U3O8 that will be purchased WITH PHYSICAL DELIVERY in the spotmarket, while the total annual volume traded in the spotmarket (mainly back and forth transactions WITHOUT PHYSICAL DELIVERY) in 2019 was 63.3Mlb.

    While uranium demand from utilities is price inelastic!

    Fyi, this is posted on different boards simultaneously.

  • N
    Yesterday, the uranium spotprice went up from 44.90 USD/lb to 48.55 USD/lb, that’s a hugh jump in the price.

    Yet, Sprott only bought 100,000 lb of uranium through the spotmarket yesterday!!

    ==> Someone else has been buying at those uranium prices yesterday. First panic purchase? Or did another company (like URC, Cameco, hedge fund, family office,...) buy uranium at these prices yesterday?

    In the meantime we are getting the first signs of panic/troubles among carry traders/fuel buyers:
    - participants asking (begging) Denison mines to release their 2,500,000 pounds
    - the price of UF6 is also increasing fast, yet SPUT didn’t buy UF6 yet —> fuel buyers are buying higher in the fuel cycle ;-) But there is a limite to that! And maybe the first signs of decreasing underfeeding due to faster production of EUP.

    The squeeze is on!!

    Once there will be not enough uranium in the spotmarket anymore, SPUT will start to buy UF6 ;-)


    $UUUU $URG $DNN $NXE $UEC , Global Atomic, Fission Uranium, Paladin Energy, ...
  • N

    Yellow Cake just announced its intention to raise a minimum of 110 million USD to purchase at least 3,5M lbs of physical uranium under agreement with Kazatomprom at a price of 28,95$/lb

    That's 3,5M lbs less for utilities!

    Next Uranium Participation...

    After that Phase3...

    And maybe a repeat of phase2 next year


  • N

    Look at the shift happening in the global nuclear and uranium sector.

    Today: French regulator approves 50-year operation of 900 MWe reactors : Regulation & Safety - World Nuclear News

    French nuclear regulator ASN has completed a generic review to extend the lifespan of 32 reactors of the 900 MW fleet for 10 years beyond the initially planned 40 years!

    This is big and in line with "Programmation pluriannuelle de l'énergie (PPE)" of November 2018!

    - each license extension = additional uranium demand that wasn't anticipated before;
    - demand for uranium is price inelastic
    - France is not the only country extending the license of msny reactors (USA, Canada, Russia,...)
    - China, India and other countries are building reactors massively

  • P
    $ABEPF conversation
    Happy weekend everyone, make sure to enjoy yourself. Lots of new investors have popped up in the last few weeks so make sure you take this time to do some real DD on shares you're going to buy. This message board is NOT an indicator of long term trends. Long term is ALWAYS better than short term, you dont lose your money until you sell.

    A few tips:
    - Never buy shares at open as the day traders take out their profit, the stock price will eventually dip
    - Watch a stock for a few days before you buy
    - When buying more shares in a "dip" make sure you buy little amounts often
    - Do your own DD (research)
    - Only buy what you can afford
    - When investing in a sector, grab a range of shares from different companies


    Please like this message so that many can read this.
  • N
    This is huge! UEC just announced that they increased their U3O8 buying!

    Don’t wait too long to take position in a couple uranium companies

    Uranium Energy Corporation: News Releases

    Corpus Christi, TX, March 17, 2021 - Uranium Energy Corp (NYSE American: UEC, the “Company” or “UEC”) is pleased to report that it has secured 800,000 pounds of additional U.S. warehoused uranium, consisting of 500,000 pounds for April delivery and 300,000 pounds for December delivery.

    Including the previously announced acquisition of 400,000 pounds, UEC has now entered into contracts to purchase a total of 1,200,000 pounds of U3O8 at a volume weighted average price of $28.94 per pound.

  • N

    How undervalued is the entire uranium sector at the moment?

    Different way to look at it.
    Here are 2 ways:

    1 The combined market cap of the ENTIRE uranium sector today (+-20 billion USD) =

    - 3.5% of the market cap of Tesla (590 billion USD)
    - 2.5% of the market cap of Facebook (808 billion USD)
    - 1.5% of the market cap of Amazon (1529 billion USD)

    - 1% of the market cap of Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Saudi Aramco) (1855 billion USD)
    - 17.5% of the market cap of Petrochina (almost 115 billion USD)
    - 26.5% of the market cap of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (75 billion USD)
    - 8.5% of the market cap of Exxon Mobil Corp (240 billion USD)
    - 10% of the market cap of Chevron Corp (204 billion USD)
    - 15% of the market cap of Royal Dutch Shell (132 billion USD)
    - 0.8% of the combined market cap of the 6 oil companies mentioned above (2621 billion USD) !!

    - 14% of the market cap of Boeing (142 billion USD)
    - 41,5% of the market cap of Newmont Corp (almost 48 billion USD)- …

    Yet, Nuclear energy now provides about 10% of the world’s electricity. Nuclear energy is the world's second largest source of low-carbon power (29% of the total in 2018).

    2) The combined market cap of the ENTIRE uranium sector today (+-20 billion USD) compared to a combined market cap of +- 150 billion USD it had in 2011
  • N
    How undervalued is the entire uranium sector at the moment?

    The entire market cap of uranium sector (15 billion USD) =
    - 2% to 3% of the market cap of Tesla (560 billion USD)
    - 35% of the market cap of Barrick Gold (almost 43 billion USD)
    - 31% of the market cap of Newmont Corp (almost 48 billion USD)
    - 9% of the market cap of Exxon Mobil Corp (almost 170 billion USD)
    - 8% to 9% of the market cap of Chevron Corp (almost 169 billion USD)
    - 11% of the market cap of Royal Dutch Shell (almost 140 billion USD)
    - 12% of the market cap of Boeing (126 billion USD)
    - …

    And that while:
    - Demand for uranium is price inelastic!
    - A lot of long term supply contracts of western countries need to be renewed in the coming years ==> price discovery is coming, because uranium miners will not restart existing mines and surely not take the risk in build a new mine without the cover of signed off take agreements before the start of the mine construction.
    - A lot of new reactors are build in China, India, … New reactor cores need 3 times the normal fuel renewal of existing reactors

    Patience and diversification in your Uranium positions is key here

    The question isn't IF it will happen, the question is WHEN it will happen.


  • N
    How is the uranium mining industry getting rid of global U3O8 surplus created after the Fukushima accident?

    What did and does Cameco $CCJ ?
    - closure of the Rabbit Lake mine in April 2016 (they had a mine life till 2017);
    - suspension of wellfield development at the US mines in April 2016
    - McArther River mine and Key Lake milling operations were put in care-and-maintenance by end of January 2018
    - started buying uranium (still going on) on the spotmarket early 2018 to compensate the fact that starting early 2018 Cameco would produce less U3O8 then the amount of U3O8 that Cameco had and still has to deliver to their costumers through long term contracts
    - Add to this the unplanned production loss in 2020 due to the Covid19 production suspension at their Cigar Lake mine in Canada and their JV Inkai mine in Kazakhstan

    All that resulted in almost 87 million pounds of less production between April 2016 and today and more then 50 million pounds of U3O8 bought from the spot since early 2018.

    What did and does Kazatomprom?
    - production reduction of 13500 tU from 2017 till 2019
    - production reduction planned of +-16000 tU from early 2020 till end 2022
    - Add to this the unplanned production loss in 4Q 2020 and 1S 2021 up to 4000 tU due to the Covid19 suspension of wellfield development at the mines in Kazakhstan

    By 2023 all that would result in +- 80 million pounds of less production from 2017 till end 2022 and today Kazatomprom became a spot buyer like Cameco, Peninsula Energy, UR-energy and probably Orano too

  • N
    To all the uranium investors,

    A must see interview of 3 experts!! (1,5h)

    Probably a big eye opener gor new uranium investors + a fuel buyer acknowledging that a supply problem is coming and by consequence the supply risk for utilities is rapidly growing