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Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
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HR Q4 Estimate Updated:
Rent Collections 95-97% (inc CERS)
FFO Payout Ratio 40%
AFFO Payout Ratio 48.5%
Bad Debts $6.5M (12M Q3)
Distribution Increase Announced to 8 cents/month
Debt to Assets - 46.8%
NAV per unit $22.41
Full Year FFO 1.66 - Trailing Price to FFO 7.66
Full Year AFFO 1.40 - Trailing Price to AFFO 9.01
This is during a pandemic. Many new developments coming online, a restarting of the economy, and lower borrowing is going to drive up forward earnings pretty quick.
Distributions Increase to 8 cents/unit resulting in FFO payout ratio of 58% or AFFO Payout Ratio 66%. I expect this to be in Q2 2020. Hopefully buybacks are announced first and start soon.
1B Unsecured LOC
3.5B Unencumbered Asset Pool
Bad Debts will be lower due to elimination of CECRA write offs as well as fewer tenant bankruptcies.
There are a lot of unknowns. Converting construction developments to a finished product, such as River Landing could materially improve Q4 result estimates regarding FFO & NAV. River Landing is the largest project completing. HR has stated that leasing was ahead of expectations in residential, and retail started to occupy space in November. However, it is likely they have a few months free rent and won't add much to FFO until Q1/Q2 of 2021. The board will likely take this new FFO and use it as additional tailwinds to support a vote on a distribution increase. If not, buying back units would be a good use of funds until the unit price recovers, then increase distributions in Q2 2021. I believe with 2020 write downs behind us, distribution increases are not only warranted, but also needed to ensure the trust pays out enough distributions to avoid any income tax obligations as a REIT. The focus in 2021 should be recovery of the unit pricing.
$SPG $MAC $BPY $BXP $ARE $FRT $KIM $ALX $CIO $VNQ $WPC $BAM
#D.UN #SRU.UN #SOT.UN #REI.UN #MR.UN
A lot of talk that tax loss selling is now ~30 days in the past. Those that sold for tax loss, are now able to repurchase. If you look at the Charts, majority of tax selling appears to have started around Dec 16th onward. Correlates nicely to the support the last few days. This was a smart move for those that sold as they are able to ride the wave back up in 2021. Time for the REIT recovery (not specific to HR)
$SPG $MAC $BPY $BXP $ARE $FRT $KIM $ALX $WPC
Q3 Earnings FFO for HR.UN:
"FFO per Unit in Q3 2020 was $0.41 compared to $0.38 in Q2 2020 and $0.43 in Q3 2019. Excluding the Q3 2020 provision for bad debts of $13.4 million,
Q3 2020 FFO would have been $0.46 per Unit, an increase of $0.03 per Unit compared to Q3 2019. AFFO per Unit was $0.35 in Q3 2020 compared to $0.29 in Q2 2020 and $0.35 in Q3 2019. Distributions paid as a percentage of AFFO was 49.0% in Q3 2020, resulting in significant retained cash flow. "
Let's take the 41 cent number, which I believe is low. 41 cents x 4 quarters = 1.64
Price to FFO is around 7.7. That is ridiculous.
Now remove bad debts (CECRA replaced by CERS, so bad debts will drop), factor in rising contractual rents, higher new leases, improvements in rentals from Jackson Park, and FFO from all their just launched developments such as River Landing, and likely have FFO around .46 to .50. At the mid end .48, price to FFO is around 6.6.
Worst case, bad debts get worse, leasing of new properties falls apart, CERS support is stopped, and we are looking at FFO around .38/quarter. That works out to a price to FFO around 8.3. I find this highly unlikely, and still incredibly cheap.
No matter how you cut it, fire sale is happening on this highly diversified REIT designed to weather a storm like this.
"As at September 30, 2020, H&R had $1.0 billion of unused borrowing capacity available under its lines of credit, $54.4
million of cash on hand and an unencumbered asset pool of approximately $3.5 billion. "
Additionally, 250M unsecured debenture at 2.906% was completed in December, adding even more liquidity in Q4. This low interest rate on unsecured debt shows the quality of H&Rs credit rating.
$SPG $BPY $WPC $BXP $ARE $SLG $AMT $CIO
It would be irresponsible to not put that cash to work in Q2 through buybacks and/or a payout increase.
Dream Office NAV will increase ~81 Cents to date over last quarter, from Dream Industrial Investment Alone. Details Below:
Dream Office Owns ~26,604,300 Units of Dream Industrial REIT.
@ 13.27 Closing Price Today = ~$353,000,000 (Closed 13.15 on December 31st)
@ 11.81 Closing Price Last Quarter End = ~$314,728,869
NAV of REIT increased ~$38,270,000 just from the increase in Dream Industrial Units Owned. Not including Distributions received since last quarter from DIR Investment of $6,697,000, for a total of around $45,000,000 increase in NAV just from DIR Investment. Or around 2.87%. Which works out to about 81 cents per unit in NAV increase JUST from Dream Industrial Investment. NAV October 30th = $28.17 . NAV today = ~$28.98, and this does not include anything else, like FFO retention, Fair Value Property Increases (Contractual Rent Increases and Renewals), Buybacks, etc.
Do your own research. I do not know if Dream Office Sold any units of DIR last quarter, but I doubt it was much, if any.
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FYI: To My #117 Peeps This Week Or Month, "We ONLY BUY at .20-.21 Or BELOW! Period!! Let's make some real $$$ riding on the backs of the LONGS!!! #Comments #Below #Are #All #SadJohnLong!
This one may be worth a play.
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