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So now there's a greater than $11/barrel difference between Brent and WTI crude. $110/barrel Brent vs. $98.62 WTI. Just incredible. And unsustainable, IMO. WTI should be only $3-4/barrel behind Brent, which would put it at $106-107/barrel now.
Wow! EIA reports a net draw of 10.1 million barrels for the week. That's a 5.6 million draw from the SPR and 4.5 million draw from commercial. That's a huge draw, should be very bullish for oil.
Five pieces of data ahead of Energy Producers earnings next week.
All of which is pointing to tighter energy supplies. Both Oil and Gas.
1) Strategic reserve drawdown continuing at 1 million barrels per day. This Ends October and represents 9% of USA daily "output". (production+ the STEO draw). Note: The 150 Million+ barrels loaned will need to be returned at some point in the future.
2) US Oilfield Production rolling over. Second week in a row of decline. Plan was to "hand off" the Strategic Reserve draw with a Production-gain. Production however is dropping. Setting up a 1+ million barrel per day loss or 9% loss of current USA supply in the system. Futures will begin pricing this shortly when the day traders are done playing games and physical supply gets priced in. As a reminder US Oil production peaked at 13.2 Million barrles per day in 2020. it's now 11.9mbpd. A loss of 9.8%.
3) Natural Gas Inventory is below the 5 year average and rolling over while Freeport LNG is OFFLINE. This provided a fake 2 billion cubic feet per day surplus based on an explosion. Even with that, Natural gas supply cannot keep up. Freeport will be drawing in October. Losing 7% of USA production to export under contract.
4) US Oil exports spiked last week blowing out last 5 years data. 4 million barrels were exported. No clue where. Does it really matter?
5) Gasoline Production is now rolling over. Production peaked 6 weeks ago, and has dropped 500,000 barrels of gasoline per day. A drop in supply of 5%. As gasoline inventory is the lowest in 5 years
Very obvious manipulation of the WTI crude price today. Currently WTI is nearly $9/barrel below the Brent price ($97/barrel vs $106/barrel). That's ridiculous. Normal spread between the two is $3-4/barrel.
Excellent EIA number for oil producers, just out. Net commercial drawdown of 2.76 million barrels, overall drawdown of 9.71 million barrels! SPR drawdown of 6.95 million barrels.
This week's EIA report (just out) indicated a net overall weekly draw in US oil inventory of 6.45 million barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was drawn by 3.0 million barrels during the week, yet despite this the net commercial change was a draw of 3.45 million barrels.
US commercial oil inventories are (as of the report) 18.3% below the year ago levels, and the US SPR is 10.9% below year ago levels.
All of which should be very bullish for WTI crude oil prices going forward, IMO.
EIA report out today showed a net overall weekly draw in US oil inventory of 6.7 million barrels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) put 4.2 million barrels on the market during the week, but it still wasn't enough to meet demand. Thus commercial inventories declined 2.5 million barrels despite the draining of 4.2 million SPR barrels.
Compared with inventories one year ago, US commercial inventories are 17.8% below the year ago levels, and the SPR is now 10.4% below year ago levels. Supply simply isn't keeping up with demand.
Lots of positives for $XOP.CN for example Oil production continues increasing (80% since April 1!) Drilling new exploratory wells, recompilation of wells...the CEO Art is ambitious... I'm sticking around :)
A
Reversion to the mean - $5.50 looks to be the support. The accumulation is real at this level. Look for a breakout of the $XOP in the weeks to come, this should translate to higher highs for us longs. Looking forward to the ride in the month of May 🚀
DO NOT PANIC sell.... I can guarantee you this will be higher in 2020. Crude, NG, LNG, petrochemicals,etc. are all ESSENTIAL to modern day life!..it's NOT going away This is simply end-of-year Tax Loss Harvesting ... $IRR $JMF $BGR $TELL $NDP $BCX $GMLP $OIH $XOP ‘Nobody ever made a dime panicking’ ~Jim Cramer https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/cramer-time-to-slowly-buy-stocks-nobody-ever-made-a-dime-panicking.html
$XOP $XLE $USO $USL positive news coming out from the Saudis and Russians in holding production cuts - still reluctance from other parties as meeting date pushed back to June 17-18 - so tough to call considering all the parties involved more energy content from this account https://twitter.com/Clifton_Capital/status/1268286111945760775
Oil could hit $100 per barrel within the next 18 months, Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris told CNBC on Wednesday—a hard pill to swallow with Brent currently trading below $30 per barrel
Oil could hit $100 per barrel within the next 18 months, Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris told CNBC on Wednesday—a hard pill to swallow with Brent currently trading below $30 per barrel
There are 3 tankers from Saudi Arabia already in the gulf, 19 on the way. Reuters reports 40 million barrels. This oil is sold to American big oil. I get the ship sailed and the xom, mpc, cop, cvx of the world bought it, I just hope they paid spot. Do we realize that this oil was slammed into our market and China intentionally. This whole Saudi/Russia was one big con...... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabia-may-route-tankers-140951915.html $uco $uso $xom $cvx $cop $xop $eog
GPOR is in the $XOP, which has more influence on the stock than individual investors. Check the XOP chart and you'll see some similarities. There's no direct logic in the market anymore.
$LPI $CPE $ESTE $CDEV $SM $FANG $PXD $XOP $TALO $ROCC $MTDR $OAS
$LPI $CPE $ESTE $CDEV $SM $FANG $PXD $XOP
All of which is pointing to tighter energy supplies. Both Oil and Gas.
1) Strategic reserve drawdown continuing at 1 million barrels per day. This Ends October and represents 9% of USA daily "output". (production+ the STEO draw).
Note: The 150 Million+ barrels loaned will need to be returned at some point in the future.
2) US Oilfield Production rolling over. Second week in a row of decline. Plan was to "hand off" the Strategic Reserve draw with a Production-gain. Production however is dropping. Setting up a 1+ million barrel per day loss or 9% loss of current USA supply in the system. Futures will begin pricing this shortly when the day traders are done playing games and physical supply gets priced in.
As a reminder US Oil production peaked at 13.2 Million barrles per day in 2020. it's now 11.9mbpd. A loss of 9.8%.
3) Natural Gas Inventory is below the 5 year average and rolling over while Freeport LNG is OFFLINE. This provided a fake 2 billion cubic feet per day surplus based on an explosion. Even with that, Natural gas supply cannot keep up. Freeport will be drawing in October. Losing 7% of USA production to export under contract.
4) US Oil exports spiked last week blowing out last 5 years data. 4 million barrels were exported. No clue where. Does it really matter?
5) Gasoline Production is now rolling over. Production peaked 6 weeks ago, and has dropped 500,000 barrels of gasoline per day. A drop in supply of 5%.
As gasoline inventory is the lowest in 5 years
$LPI $XOM $PXD $FANG $CDEV $MTDR $OXY $XOP $COP $SM
$LPI $CPE $ESTE $CDEV $SM $FANG $PXD $XOP
$LPI $CPE $ESTE $FANG $PXD $XOP $SM $CDEV
$LPI $CPE $ESTE $CDEV $SM $FANG $PXD $XOP
WTI crude $102.56/barrel (up 5.1%)
HH nat gas $7.50/mcf (up 6.9%)
$LPI $CPE $ESTE $FANG $XOP $SBOW
$LPI $CPE $CDEV $SM $FANG $ESTE $PXD $OAS $XOP
US commercial oil inventories are (as of the report) 18.3% below the year ago levels, and the US SPR is 10.9% below year ago levels.
All of which should be very bullish for WTI crude oil prices going forward, IMO.
$LPI $CPE $SM $CDEV $FANG $PXD $OXY $ESTE $XOP
Compared with inventories one year ago, US commercial inventories are 17.8% below the year ago levels, and the SPR is now 10.4% below year ago levels. Supply simply isn't keeping up with demand.
$LPI $CPE $SM $CDEV $FANG $PXD $OXY $ESTE $XOP
Crude, NG, LNG, petrochemicals,etc. are all ESSENTIAL to modern day life!..it's NOT going away
This is simply end-of-year Tax Loss Harvesting ... $IRR $JMF $BGR $TELL $NDP $BCX $GMLP $OIH $XOP
‘Nobody ever made a dime panicking’ ~Jim Cramer
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/cramer-time-to-slowly-buy-stocks-nobody-ever-made-a-dime-panicking.html
more energy content from this account
https://twitter.com/Clifton_Capital/status/1268286111945760775
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Egyptian-Billionaire-Buffett-Is-Wrong-Oil-Will-Hit-100-Within-18-Months.html
Do we realize that this oil was slammed into our market and China intentionally. This whole Saudi/Russia was one big con......
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabia-may-route-tankers-140951915.html
$uco
$uso
$xom
$cvx
$cop
$xop
$eog
$IRR $JMF $BGR $TELL $NDP $BCX $GMLP $OIH $XOP