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I’m still following Tom Lee’s guidance:
STRATEGY: In our view, Energy stocks are still best risk/reward into YE
As we look into the final 4 months of 2021, we believe an “everything rally” is underway, one that will see both Epicenter ($XLE, $XLF, $XLI, $RCD) and Growth rally ($FNGS, $QQQ, $XLK). But among these, we believe Energy stocks are likely to lead.
Energy stocks are up +26% YTD, outperforming the S&P 500 by 700bp which is up 19% YTD. Energy stocks have endured a very rough two months, shedding more than 10%, as the delta-variant surge and the related second order effects hurt cyclical stocks. But the risk/reward for Energy is favorable, in our view:
– Oil just saw a “golden cross” on a weekly basis (CNBC flagged this) –> fuel for rally
– Energy stocks short interest highest level since the start of pandemic –> fuel for rally
– Oilfield services ETF $OIH has risen 13% even as ETF has seen redemptions –> fuel for further rally
In short, if the Delta-variant is receding (our central case), economic resilience will resume and this is a positive set up for Epicenter stocks. This is the reason we have seen Cyclicals rallying so strongly in the past week.
…WTI sees weekly “golden cross”
This CNBC tweet caught our eye Thursday. Oil has been resilient in the past week or so, but is off from a recent high of nearly $80. And the CNBC article notes that oil had a “golden cross” based upon weekly prices. A “golden cross” is when the 50-period moving average moves above the 200-week. The Miller Tabak Strategist, Matt Maley, quoted in the article views this is a positive development. Per the article, WTI has rallied in each instance.
The “weekly golden cross” took place sometime 3 weeks ago as shown below. And after initially continuing to weakness, Oil has reversed sharply higher this week.
…6 weekly “golden cross” since 1987, Oil rallied 98%, median 31%, 6 of 6 times –> implies $88-$90 WTISince 1987, WTI has seen 6 such weekly “golden cross” events as indicated below. Tireless Ken and the team calculated the further rally in WTI post the golden cross.
– 6 of 6 times WTI rallied further
– average gain +98%
– median gain +31%
U sing the median gain (because 2002-2008 distorts results), this implies WTI could rise to $88-$90 in the next 12-18 months. This is powerful upside and implies significant gains ahead for Energy stocks.
…OIH short interest surged to highest since start of pandemicOilfield services stocks, $OIH ETF as a proxy, have been particularly hard hit. And this is reflected by the parabolic surge in short interest:
– 1.479 million shares of OIH are sold short
– this is the highest figure since the earliest days of the pandemic
– 1.050 million shares sold 8 weeks ago, a big jump
…OIH current short interest essentially highest in 10 years
In fact, look at the 10-year history of OIH short interest. Outside of the months around March 2020, the current OIH short interest is the highest ever in the history of the ETF. And it is even worse than the period from 2012 to 2019, when OIH was essentially in a freefall.
– as famed market technician, Richard Russell, liked to say
– “all rallies start with short covering”
And with such elevated levels of short interest, this is a lot of firepower. Moreover, fundamentals and capital discipline for Energy companies is far higher than anytime in the past 10 years. Thus, investors are not necessarily “fundamentally” shorting Energy stocks.
– rather, more likely Energy is the most convenient group to short given their strong 1H performance
– and the associated vulnerability of Energy to an economic slowdown
Since we believe Delta-variant driven COVID-19 surge is peaking, we see less risk of a global slowdown.
…Lastly, OIH has rallied +13% in the past week, yet, OIH ETF seeing redemptions = impressive underlying strengthOIH is an ETF and ETF inflows and outflows also show up as changes in shares outstanding (S/O). We have plotted both the shares outstanding and also 10D change in shares below. A few thing really jumped out at us:
– since June, S/O fell -22% from 15.2 million to 11.9mm, or -3.3 million
– that is a tremendous decline
– OIH has rallied +13% in the past week
– S/O fell -300,000 in that period of time
– OIH has seen consistent redemptions for the past two weeks
We view this as particularly constructive, as OIH and oilfield services stocks have rallied even with investor outflows. Imagine how these stocks would perform if there are actual investor inflows.
Think the banking sector is looking healthy?... Not what this chart says....Yeeesh.. Check $XLF not a pretty picture for such an important cog in the "recovery"
Isn't Wells Fargo sending out some red flags?? They are no longer doing second mortgages and now they will not finance a used car from an independent dealer.
I always thought banks loaned money?? Second mortgages and used cars loans are not the problem, maybe its the underwriters.
$w $sqqq $xlf
$XLF stress test reports come out on June 25th, huge for understanding the health of banks and the economy as a whole
more content on banks here -
I believe we are starting to see individual sector weakness. $XBI saw a hanging man and a bearish confirmation candle form on the daily chart yesterday. It will be interesting to see how $XLF does with the congressional hearing today. I think it is getting increasingly more difficult for the tail to wag the dog via /ES and $SPY.
Don’t sleep on $PBTS still below target price and volume is insane. Next to squeeze?? $MRIN $XLF $WISH
Last day of the quarter - Window Dressing....and fully expecting to see $SPY, $DIA, $QQQ to retrace (descending triangle). Should see 60,000 infections to be reported in a single day by tomorrow. $TSLA, $MSFT, $XLF, $AAPL should see a 10-30% fall back.... thus dropping into the "W" formation. The back half of the W should last until the election...then we will see which party wins and if our economy can truly go back up.
Does not look like the $600/week extension will continue - Fiscal stimulus may happen, but w/o jobs it won't be enough.
- Short term bear, long term bull.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM, $XLF, $GS, $AXP, $DFS, $V, $C. Whole Sector falling.
Just get out !
Why is XLF down 17% in Pre-maRkEt????
Micron book value is like $29 a share... future earnings is only valued at $6 a share at todays price. I figured they would beat this down below $40 but market forces did that and then some. cash on hand should be enought to use to get a loan to buyout the company I don't understand why they dont do it but my guess is they like seeing it this low while they buyback shares for a while. SOXL last minute of the day had 200 contracts traded of $140 puts, if that was a bet going down why didnt they place that yesterday instead of at the end of the day when the market was at it's worst point. I think the ETF's are controlling stocks such as the $XLF controlling banks sentiment and share prices although they are making record profits... buy when fear is at it's highest point, sell when it is the lowest point. VIX closed around 26 that is very high...
If anything, Wells is really preparing for the worst. Jumbo home loans, borrower has to have $1million in equitys,cash, bond or Wells investment, no longer offering second mtg for credit line, massive $9B increase in loss reserves (up from $3B in q1), cut dividend (expected), out of secondary mkt auto loans....
These measures make sense, right??
$spy $bac $c $xlf
Poor earnings by Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) have given investors a chance to buy the dip and they did... Both stocks opened lower after reporting their earnings. However, quickly investors bought and the stocks surged higher. Both stocks are entering overbought territory and likely to pull back in the coming days. The biggest tell for the financial sector is the $XLF, the financial ETF. The ETF is approaching the daily 50 moving average and a major pivot from October 2018. The combination of these two factors gives a short trade on the XLF at $25.25 a high reward, low risk success rate. Keep it on your radar.
The modifications to the Global Industry Classification Standards (GICS®) previously announced by S&P Dow Jones Indices and MSCI Inc. will divide the current financial sector into two sectors: financial services and real estate. As a result, the Financial Sector Index will be reconstituted to remove real estate from the financial sector. Effective concurrent with changes to the Financial Sector Index, XLF will no longer have exposure to real estate securities (except mortgage REITs, which will remain in the Financial Sector Index consistent with the GICS reclassification, scheduled for September 16, 2016). These modifications to XLF are intended to allow investors to seek precise, liquid financial sector exposure that aligns with the updated GICS sector classifications.
There is one in quadrillion chance that any Trumptard has an IQ greater than 85.
$DJI $SPY $QQQ $SQQQ $XLF $EEM $UVXY
More Corporate Layoffs expected by Friday.
$SPY, $QQQ, $DIA, $XLF, $USO
Total market disconnect.
Financial making great earning (discouting some reserve)
Building reserve even default rate remain historic low.
Stimilus directly reduce risk.
$QQQ at all time high , it now 12% higher than pre-pandemic like everything is good.
$SPY at all time high
$XLF is still down 30%.
Amazing no one care about value they paying but they care possible debt bomb for only one industry even when it would destroy entire world economy in no time.
I drove all over Manhattan today and couldn’t find $XLF offices. Might be a sham stock.
Sell in may is coming do not go long during the summer.
I love ULTIMETESTOCKALERTS. I have done really well with their plays
looks like we got that ATH today. Going to short either $XLF or $XLE on Monday. Which ever is up.
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