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Safeguard Scientifics, Inc. (SFE)
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According to SFE Q3 analyst call, MediaMath valuation is reduced to 2.6 to 3.7x revenue, down from 3.5-4x which they stated during NYC investor luncheon 25 days ago. :-( SFE owns 21%.
Doing the math based on $800MM MediaMath 2015 revenue, this translates to SFE valuation of $440-600MM or $22-$30 / share. Source of MediaMath revenue in link below:
So why is SFE trading at 11.5???
MediaMath's competitors include AppNexus and DoubleClick. Here's a great comparison between MediaMath and AppNexus:
AppNexus is likely to file for an IPO based on $200MM+ in annual revenue
MediaMath which appears to have 60% as many customers which would calculate to $120MM+ in revenue. An AppNexus IPO would help set the valuation for MediaMath...
MediaMath vs AppNexus Competitor Report | Demand Side Platforms
Side-by-side comparison of MediaMath and AppNexus. See how many websites are using MediaMath vs AppNexus and view adoption trends over time.
In 40 years, I gotta say and STILL say this is the mother of all #$%$
Excellent news from Medivon, now Prognos.
Prognos, an AI company, launches to eradicate disease by driving decisions earlier in healthcare
NEW YORK, Jan. 5, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Prognos, www.prognos.ai, an innovative healthcare AI company, has launched...
Now trading on NASDAQ: The Trade Desk.
The demand-side platform officially IPO'd on Wednesday morning, with shares trading between $28 and $30, smashing the company’s $16-to-$18-per-share projection. The stock price placed the company's market cap close to $1 billion.
Why is this important? SFE owns 20% of Trade Desk rival MediaMath which has at least similar revenue and more market share.
Previously, have valued SFE's share around $100M, but with the Trade Desk valuation, this would increase to $200M. SFE has 20 Million shares, so SFE stock price appears undervalued by at least $5 / share...
The Trade Desk Share Price Surges In IPO Debut | AdExchanger
Now trading on NASDAQ: The Trade Desk. The demand-side platform officially IPO'd on Wednesday morning, with shares trading between $28 and $30, smashing the company’s $16-to-$18-per-share projection (which it amended upward from $14 to $16 the day be
Good news for Trice of which SFE owns 28%...
Trice Medical Receives FDA 510(K) Clearance for mi-eye 2
KING OF PRUSSIA, Pa., Oct. 6, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Trice Medical announced today that it received 510(k) clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") for mi-eye 2, a disposable needle with a fully integrated camera that enables physic
Notes from annual SFE investor luncheon
Seeking an exit on Good Start Genetics within 18 months. Last of their legacy non-tech healthcare holdings.
Market valuations are high, so not adding as many investments this year
Expect to exit 28 partner companies with $314M in deployed investment with historical average of 1.7X return and 17% IRR.
NovaSom growing nicely over last 18 months. Will soon be high traction stage
Seeking to exit legacies Beyond and AdvantEdge. Beyond growing.
Seeking to exit MediaMath which they compare with public company Criteo, which is valued at 4x revenue
Highlighted their holdings in Apprenda, Sonobi, Propeller Health, Syapse, Transactis and Trice; Sonobi, Syapse, Transactis and Trice are very promising. Transactis post-money $130MM. SFE owns 24%. Trice solution eliminates need for orthopedics to use MRIs and shifts revenue to practicing physicians from MRI centers.
Safeguard Scientifics New York City Investor Luncheon
Thursday, October 06, 2016 at 12:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time.
SFE Q2 Call transcript.
://s1.q4cdn.com/845476362/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2Q16/07.28.16-SFE-Q2-2016-Results-Transcript.pdfOf particular note:
Several key take-aways:
SFE is exploring plans to exit their MediaMath holding sooner rather that later
SFE owns 24% of Transactis which was post-money valued at $130MM during the last investment round.
SFE 3 legacy holdings (Beyond, Advantedge & ???) generate $124MM in revenue. Not sure which company they consider as their 3rd legacy holding...
Beyond has pivoted effectively and is seeing growth.
SFE August corporate presentation now avail:
Summary: SFE appears to be significantly undervalued.
7 reasons to buy SFE
1) At $13 / share, market cap of $260MM with 20MM shares outstanding. Value of holdings and cash > $340MM or 17 / share
2) MediaMath (21%) ownership, likely worth > $200MM based on recent IPO of competitor, The Trade Desk (TDD). MediaMath is #2 in that market. TDD is #3.
3) Remaining SFE holdings worth > $100MM based on revenue stage
4) SFE cash - debt = $30MM+
5) SFE portfolio company growth and inherent valuation gains exceed annual $16MM operational cost
6) 5 SFE analysts have stock price targets ranging from $18-$26 / share
7) To profit from the above
Thurs earnings should provide a nice boost as $58M gain from the Putney sale gets added to the financials.
MediaMath Deloitte Fast 500; 2015 #163 with > 500% growth...
Good to see SFE cleared Bridgevine and AppFirst from their portfolio in this announcement too. They've got a few more near-worthless holdings as well. Hopefully they can dump those soon and keep focus on the good ones such as Trice, Transactis, Good Start, etc.
Nice to see MediaMath listed as 2nd best pre-IPO phase company as well.
where is everyone?
SFE: Message Board for Safeguard Scientifics, Inc. - InvestorVillage
Safeguard Scientifics, Inc. Message board - Online Community of active, educated investors researching and discussing Safeguard Scientifics, Inc. Stocks.
According to SFE investor luncheon, MediaMath revenue range is $200MM with valuation of 3.5-4x. SFE owns 21%.
Doing the math, this translates to SFE valuation of $147-168M or $7-$8 / share.
With the $58M gain from the Putney sale, SFE will have cash of ~100M and ~50M in debt. MediaMath ~20% stake is expected to be worth $100MM+. SFE Market Cap is ~250MM. This value rest of portfolio at only $100MM...SFE has invested ~$300MM in the rest of the portfolio....
Seems to be lots of upside...
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