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I did $SPY puts market open Tuesday and $QQQ puts market close Tuesday. Also got VXX calls market close. Everything is lining up for a 4-5% pull back. Have about $5,000 in SPY puts $1,000 in QQQ puts and 500 in VXX calls. So far looking good!
I’m still following Tom Lee’s guidance:
STRATEGY: In our view, Energy stocks are still best risk/reward into YE
As we look into the final 4 months of 2021, we believe an “everything rally” is underway, one that will see both Epicenter ($XLE, $XLF, $XLI, $RCD) and Growth rally ($FNGS, $QQQ, $XLK). But among these, we believe Energy stocks are likely to lead.
Energy stocks are up +26% YTD, outperforming the S&P 500 by 700bp which is up 19% YTD. Energy stocks have endured a very rough two months, shedding more than 10%, as the delta-variant surge and the related second order effects hurt cyclical stocks. But the risk/reward for Energy is favorable, in our view:
– Oil just saw a “golden cross” on a weekly basis (CNBC flagged this) –> fuel for rally
– Energy stocks short interest highest level since the start of pandemic –> fuel for rally
– Oilfield services ETF $OIH has risen 13% even as ETF has seen redemptions –> fuel for further rally
In short, if the Delta-variant is receding (our central case), economic resilience will resume and this is a positive set up for Epicenter stocks. This is the reason we have seen Cyclicals rallying so strongly in the past week.
…WTI sees weekly “golden cross”
This CNBC tweet caught our eye Thursday. Oil has been resilient in the past week or so, but is off from a recent high of nearly $80. And the CNBC article notes that oil had a “golden cross” based upon weekly prices. A “golden cross” is when the 50-period moving average moves above the 200-week. The Miller Tabak Strategist, Matt Maley, quoted in the article views this is a positive development. Per the article, WTI has rallied in each instance.
The “weekly golden cross” took place sometime 3 weeks ago as shown below. And after initially continuing to weakness, Oil has reversed sharply higher this week.
…6 weekly “golden cross” since 1987, Oil rallied 98%, median 31%, 6 of 6 times –> implies $88-$90 WTISince 1987, WTI has seen 6 such weekly “golden cross” events as indicated below. Tireless Ken and the team calculated the further rally in WTI post the golden cross.
– 6 of 6 times WTI rallied further
– average gain +98%
– median gain +31%
U sing the median gain (because 2002-2008 distorts results), this implies WTI could rise to $88-$90 in the next 12-18 months. This is powerful upside and implies significant gains ahead for Energy stocks.
…OIH short interest surged to highest since start of pandemicOilfield services stocks, $OIH ETF as a proxy, have been particularly hard hit. And this is reflected by the parabolic surge in short interest:
– 1.479 million shares of OIH are sold short
– this is the highest figure since the earliest days of the pandemic
– 1.050 million shares sold 8 weeks ago, a big jump
…OIH current short interest essentially highest in 10 years
In fact, look at the 10-year history of OIH short interest. Outside of the months around March 2020, the current OIH short interest is the highest ever in the history of the ETF. And it is even worse than the period from 2012 to 2019, when OIH was essentially in a freefall.
– as famed market technician, Richard Russell, liked to say
– “all rallies start with short covering”
And with such elevated levels of short interest, this is a lot of firepower. Moreover, fundamentals and capital discipline for Energy companies is far higher than anytime in the past 10 years. Thus, investors are not necessarily “fundamentally” shorting Energy stocks.
– rather, more likely Energy is the most convenient group to short given their strong 1H performance
– and the associated vulnerability of Energy to an economic slowdown
Since we believe Delta-variant driven COVID-19 surge is peaking, we see less risk of a global slowdown.
…Lastly, OIH has rallied +13% in the past week, yet, OIH ETF seeing redemptions = impressive underlying strengthOIH is an ETF and ETF inflows and outflows also show up as changes in shares outstanding (S/O). We have plotted both the shares outstanding and also 10D change in shares below. A few thing really jumped out at us:
– since June, S/O fell -22% from 15.2 million to 11.9mm, or -3.3 million
– that is a tremendous decline
– OIH has rallied +13% in the past week
– S/O fell -300,000 in that period of time
– OIH has seen consistent redemptions for the past two weeks
We view this as particularly constructive, as OIH and oilfield services stocks have rallied even with investor outflows. Imagine how these stocks would perform if there are actual investor inflows.
There is a clear bearish divergence on 1 year chart on $QQQ and $SPY also noticeable on the 180 day chart. This came right after a hidden bullish divergence on the last dip buy that happened. We are likely to see a correction and I think this will be a major correction probably 7-8% on $QQQ to around $350 to test the major uptrend line we put in since last year
its funny how $QQQ crashes and crashes stocks like $KNDI but by end of day Nasdaq jumps +32 and Kandi stays at the bottom.
Initially $FCEL and on $CEMI was only red because Nasdaq was down now Nasdaq $QQQ is up big. the whole market is up huge today.
Invesco QQQ Trust
$QQQ $VENA Make sure to give your best each and every day - on the long run, it will certainly pay off!
$KODK If only there was a company with a huge manufacturing plant that could help make semiconductors batteries and medical supplies…….cough cough** KODAK
$SPY $QQQ @CNBCClosingBell @POTUS @WhiteHouse45 @jimcramer
Invesco QQQ Trust
the set up here is crazy nice. I'm in deep so if this thing reverses on me I'm going to be sick. $QQQ $VENA
$QQQ $GOOGL $FB
$IWM $QQQ green pre-market, do we finally see a bounce here?
S&P 4,384.63 = All time high close
-10% takes it to 3,950
-20% takes it to 3,510
Minor support at 3,800 level
Major support at 3,400, as well as 2,900
Nasdaq 14,733.24 = All time high close
Minor support at the 13,000+ level
Major support at the 11,000+ level
Very strong support around 8,000
-10% takes it to 13,260
-20% takes it to 11,800
Margin calls like Archegos Capital's coming. Sell offs last 2-3 weeks, or more if severe. See you guys at the bottom.
Venus Acquisition Corporation
$VENA $QQQ $AAPL Low volume pre open manipulators doing their best to convince you to sell.
Call options on $SPY or $QQQ ?
WiMi Hologram Cloud Inc.
$QCOM $QQQ $WIMI Calm before the storm!!!!😼😼😼
$Hood $qqq $spy squeeze to $100
Lower highs, lower lows = downtrend. Don't let the daily fluctuations fool you. Daily movements don't matter, only the longer trend, which is down. Each rally is being sold since CPI came out hot on Tuesday (and there was a headfake up in the morning to trick you into buying/bagholding while smart money sold off). Don't be a hero and buy high. Just set GTC buy limits 5-15% down, each 1% down until you catch it all. You can also sell puts but do GTC sell limits with higher premiums so you can get the best bang for your buck. You're welcome!
Venus Acquisition Corporation
$VENA this is quite literally one of the best company to invest in right now $QQQ
shorts are long on
with those shares dropping slowly going to have to close out shorts !!! Do not sell - BUY!!!
Get your 2022 calls in the $SQQQ and $UVXY loaded. Then get OTM puts in $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM. You will be glad you did!
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