Deutsche Märkte geschlossen

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

NYSE - Nasdaq Echtzeitpreis. Währung in USD
Zur Watchlist hinzufügen
102,10+2,62 (+2,63%)
Börsenschluss: 04:00PM EDT
102,25 +0,15 (+0,15%)
Nachbörse: 07:59PM EDT
Melden Sie sich an, um eine Nachricht zu posten.
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    Barron’s 5/26 Excerpts #MPC #PSX
    Record high gasoline prices won’t keep Americans from their road trips over Memorial Day weekend, with an estimated 39.2 million people expected to travel at least 50 miles from home this weekend.
    The number of travelers is up 8.3% from last year, but still more than 8% below the number who traveled over Memorial Day 2019, according to AAA.

    “Summer travel isn’t just heating up, it will be on fire,” said Paula Twidale, senior vice president at AAA Travel. “People are overdue for a vacation, and they are looking to catch up on some much-needed R&R in the coming months.”

    AAA says the number of people taking road trips from Thursday May 26 through Monday May 30 will tick up 4.6% this year, to 34.9 million. But high gas prices are why the percentage of those traveling by car has declined to 88.9% from last year’s 92.1%.

    Location data company Arrivalist said it is seeing fewer day trips and more overnight stays this year and an increase in road trips in the 250 mile range. It expects a “significant amount of road trip volume” this Memorial Day, according to Balakumar Raghuraman, vice president of analytics. “Our forecast shows that the travel volume may even exceed 2019 levels.”

    Air travel will approach prepandemic volumes, with an expected three million passengers expected to fly over the weekend, up 25% over last year’s 2.4 million passengers, but still below the 3.2 million passengers in 2019, according to AAA.
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Refining margins (in $/bbl): gasoline cracks (as of May 20)

    Maya US Gulf coking at $36.88
    LLS US Gulf cracking at $30.09
    WCS US Midcontinent coking at $58.67
    East Coast Forcados cracking at $25.77
    US West Coast WCS crude oil 3-2-1 crack spread at $69.19
    Nymex 3-2-1 front-month crack spread at $46.55

    #mpc, #psx, #dino
  • D
    Dennis
    $MPC conversation
    #MPC and #PSX -- I would expect both of these stocks to bounce around $100 for a while as there should be many old sell orders set around that number. I expect both stocks to eventually go higher.
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    NY Post 5/24 -- "Out of touch as ever, (the President) celebrated record-high gas prices Monday, gushing that the pump pain was part of “an incredible transition” of the US economy away from fossil fuels.”

    While the President may be trying to put "lipstick on a pig" while playing to his liberal base, the media seems laser focused on the hardships borne by average Americans.

    Nonetheless, refining investors should be aware that wholesale gasoline prices have declined since 5/16. Crude prices have increased during this period, thus squeezing crack spreads.

    This is a short time frame and doesn’t signify a trend. It does need to be monitored.
    #MPC #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    Calming wisdom from the 70's -- #PSX #MPC -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHo1fNnXFVU
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    CNBC interview - Amrita Sen (my favorite TV oil analyst) comments on global and US refining
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/05/09/global-oil-refining-capacity-could-see-real-shortages-says-energy-aspects-amrita-sen.html
    #MPC #PSX
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Refining margins (in $/bbl): gasoline cracks (as of April 29)

    Maya U.S. Gulf coking at $38.28
    LLS U.S. Gulf cracking at $29.78
    WCS U.S. Midcontinent coking at $60.08
    East Coast Forcados cracking at $25.47
    U.S. West Coast WCS crude oil 3-2-1 crack spread at $69.09
    Nymex 3-2-1 front-month crack spread at $48

    #mpc, #psx, #dino
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    I wish all our refining investors a successful Mother’s Day. It’s the worst of the Hallmark holidays. If you can get through it keeping your wife, your mother, and your mother-in-law happy -- or not feeling unappreciated – you’ve won the game.
    … And if you pick the right horse in the Derby, you’re a double winner.

    If there are any moms reading these pages, we all wish you a great day.
    #MPC #PSX
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Total flags rising refining margins, profitable gas trading ahead of Q1 results.

    In a post on its website earlier Tuesday, Total (TTE) provided investors with Q1 pricing and margin indicators; gas trading and refining margins stood out.

    Exxon (XOM) provided an 8k to the market in early April, indicating refining profits would likely fall quarter on quarter; conversely, Shell's (SHEL) Q1 preview showed refining margins rising from $6.55/b in Q4 to $10.23/b in Q1 -- Total's (TTE) release Tuesday showed refining margins more than tripling in Q1 from Q4, and up more than 7x year on year.

    Natural gas realizations rose, and Total (TTE) said the posted price figure, "does not take into account gas and LNG trading activities, which results are expected to be high and comparable to the fourth quarter 2021."

    The street is split on Q1 expectations for refiners, with Bank of America recently turning structurally bullish the sector, but flagging challenging Q1 results - to the extent refiners like Valero (VLO), Phillips (PSX) and Par Pacific (PARR) realize accelerating profits in Q1, it's likely to drive improved share price performance ahead of what is widely expected to be a strong summer driving season.

    #mpc, #psx, #dino
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    MS released a note this morning for Refining and Marketing North America entitled "1Q22 EPS Preview: All Signs Pointing Higher"
    Updated price targets for MPC, PSX, and VLO are $115, $100 and $125 respectively.
    I'll post some of the commentary below
    #MPC, #PSX
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Spot prices (not futures) of fuel products yesterday according to EIA. Each refiner has different markers for its crack spread.

    3:2:1 Crack Spread
    ($/barrel) Gulf Coast (LLS) $41.19 +4.3

    According to CME this morning:
    3:2:1 Crack Spread
    ($/barrel) $43.84

    The 3:2:1 crack spread calculation starts with the spot price for two barrels of gasoline, added to the spot price for one barrel of heating oil, and then subtracts the spot price for three barrels of WTI crude oil. We use the spot month RBOB gasoline per-gallon price multiplied by 42 to reach a barrel, and the spot month NY heating oil per-gallon price multiplied by 42 to reach a barrel. WTI crude is already quoted in dollars per barrel. The resulting value is then divided by three.

    #mpc, #psx, #dino
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    BofA and RBC pivot from bullish oil producers to bullish oil refiners

    Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR), MPC, PSX, PBF, VLOX, XLE

    Bank of America's energy team released a note Thursday indicating that "E&P performance stalled for now, advantage refiners" (XLE). Meanwhile, RBC commodity markets analyst Michael Tran wrote oil markets (USO) remain well supplied, while refined products are becoming scarce. The notes both point to challenged oil product export from Russia, China refinery run cuts and structurally reduced capacity in the US.

    Bank of America's note was a bit more strategic in nature, as the bank sees a multi-year reset in refinery valuations, following messy Q1 results. In the US, refiners are set to benefit from competitive cost advantages versus Europe, while a reduction in domestic capacity of 1.3mb/d will ensure improved domestic supply / demand balances. The analyst likes Valero (NYSE:VLO), showing ~30% upside from current levels, but notes PBF (NYSE:PBF) is the "high beta" way to play a recovery theme.

    RBC's note is more tactical. The analyst writes that Russian crude oil has continued to flow; however, around half of Russian exports come in the form of oil products. Europe has historically been a major importer of Russian and US oil products. With inventories dwindling and Russian supplies facing headwinds, RBC believes Europeans will need to bid diesel and jet fuel away from Latin American and US markets. A process that has already led to effective bidding wars, driving jet fuel and diesel margins to all-time highs.

    The war in Ukraine has highlighted many weaknesses in global energy markets. From Riyadh to Wall Street and Washington, stakeholders have been vocal about the need for investment to grow upstream energy production. Though oil production is not growing as fast as stakeholders would like, few have highlighted the fact that refining capacity in the West has actually fallen. It's fallen significantly in the past two years. As the IEA, EIA and OPEC call for record oil demand in 2022, after the US and Europe shuttered record capacity in 2019-2021, perhaps refiners like Phillips (NYSE:PSX), Marathon (NYSE:MPC) and Par Pacific (NYSE:PARR) are best positioned to benefit from rapidly evolving global energy markets.

    #MPC, #DINO, #PSX
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    REFINERY NEWS ROUNDUP: Excess feedstocks push down Russian refinery runs

    Rising stockpiles of fuel oil and other feedstocks in Russia, as international buyers shun the country's hydrocarbons, are set to weigh on refinery runs in April, according to market sources.

    Throughput has already dropped due to the start of spring maintenance with some refineries bringing their works forward, as they bear the brunt of diminishing exports.
    Stronger domestic demand for diesel and gasoline was expected to provide some cushion in April. This means that run cuts at bigger refineries, which have reduced their fuel oil output, were estimated at around 15%-20%, but could reach as much as 40% for less complex sites.

    Further out, processing could fall "by at least 50%", a trader said.

    According to estimates by market participants, around 4 million mt of capacity has been shut since Feb. 24, the day Russia invaded Ukraine. Russian refiners typically process around 25 million mt/month (around 5.9 million b/d).

    The International Energy Agency forecast a 1 million b/d fall in Russian refinery throughput this year but also noted that Russian refinery intake this year remains "a key uncertainty".

    Small and medium-sized refineries, which produce feedstock predominantly for export, are expected to run at around 50% of capacity in April.

    Others have fully halted their output. At the beginning of March, the Tuapse and Novoshakhtinsky plants in southern Russia, reduced or fully stopped crude intake, as they were unable to ship production.

    Tuapse previously exported more than 100,000 mt/month of vacuum gasoil, or VGO, but its exports have dropped to zero in April.

    Fuel oil exports have faced similar hurdles. Local media reported that Russian oil major Lukoil was expecting potential refinery closures due to a lack of outlets for fuel oil and spare storage. Later, the company denied the information and said all its refineries were operating normally and finding homes for fuel oil.

    However, problems placing Russian feedstock products have worsened.

    Another widely exported Russian feedstock, naphtha, is facing avoidance not only internationally, but from domestic petrochemical buyers, themselves subject to sanctions pressure.

    The Taif refinery has halted processing, as an adjacent petrochemical company has decided to stop taking its naphtha.

    With buyers in the West avoiding Russian products, Moscow is turning to buyers in the East.

    In addition, exports have been ramped up to neighboring Central Asian countries.

    Data emerged that Russia increased significantly its oil product exports to China and Kazakhstan in March.

    Separately, the two refineries in Belarus have nearly halved their runs due to sanctions, local media quoted Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko as saying. Naftan currently processes 11,700 mt/day crude oil and Mozyr about 13,700 mt/day. They each have capacity of around 12 million mt/year, although have been processing less than that.

    Belarus was the biggest source of Ukraine's oil product imports before the war, accounting for 41.9%, but Ukraine halted these after Russia's invasion. In 2021, Belarus supplied 3.87 million mt of petroleum products to Ukraine.

    Meanwhile, Ukraine's UkrTatNafta refinery has stopped operations after being attacked by Russian forces April 2, according to a company spokesperson.

    According to Dmytro Lunin, the head of the Poltava regional military administration, the refinery had been badly damaged by Russian missiles on April 2.

    The refinery was the only plant still operating in Ukraine and supplying the local market, after the country's Shebelinka GPP refinery was taken offline Feb. 26 due to threat of shelling following the Russian invasion.

    On April 3, Russian troops damaged the site of the former Odesa refinery and a fuel depot, local media cited Maxim Marchenko, the head of the regional military administration, as saying. The Odesa refinery suspended operations in 2010.

    Over the past month, Ukraine, which heavily relies on imports of gasoline, diesel and LPG to meet domestic demand, has started importing products from Lithuania and Poland.

    It used to import predominantly from Belarus and Russia. But it has now halted imports from Belarus, which is helping Russia in its invasion.

    At least 22,000 mt of diesel from Poland has been delivered in the week ended April 2.

    In addition, Azerbaijan, the US and Germany have agreed to step up supplies to the country after Russian forces destroyed fuel depots across the country.

    In other news, Russia's Mariisky refinery has resumed work, the regional authority said April 1. The refinery, which had not been operating for the last few years, resumed operations in February but suspended them in mid-March again due to logistical problems with shipping products by rail. It has carried out a planned maintenance.

    #MPC, #PSX, #DINO
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Feature: New York jet fuel hits $7.59/gal, or $318.62/b, likely a refined products market record

    Russia-Ukraine conflict catalyzes volatility

    Trifecta of supply concerns squeezes market

    Unprecedented bid levels send Buckeye benchmark to all-time high

    Unprecedented volatility spurred by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has catapulted the price of jet fuel in New York Harbor to all-time highs in recent sessions, with unparalleled buying interest rendering jet perhaps the most expensive major refined product ever assessed by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

    S&P Global assessed the Platts New York jet fuel for Buckeye Pipeline benchmark April 4 at the NYMEX May ULSD futures contract plus 404 cents/gal, or $7.5861/gal ($318.62/b). This value, confirmed by a standing bid at plus 403 cents/gal in the Platts Market on Close assessment process, marked not only the strongest value on record for the benchmark but likely the highest price for a refined product assessment developed by S&P Global.

    "Everyone is just trying to be first in line in the event there is a seller looking to hit the first bid," said one market participant at the start of the month.

    With this upward trend, Buckeye jet fuel joins a small group of commodities that have been subject to remarkable volatility, like the Platts Northwest European LNG marker, which was assessed March 8 at $60.925/MMBtu, or approximately $360/boe. Volatility of this degree is also associated with April 21, 2020, when the CME Group's front-month May NYMEX WTI price traded as low as minus $40.32/b.

    Market participants do not attribute this exponential leap in Buckeye jet fuel's value to a single, consequential event confined within the parameters of the Atlantic Coast jet fuel market. Rather, it is regarded as only the most recent development in a sequence of events beginning with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

    #mpc, #psx, #dino
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Goldman sees record diesel fuel margins sustaining
    Apr. 04, 2022 12:32 PM

    In a note Sunday, Goldman's commodity team wrote that a new pricing regime for oil (USO) requires "demand destruction" for oil products. However, as high prices lead to falling demand for products like gasoline, Goldman expects distillate fuel demand to remain strong and margins to remain high. The note points to several key factors which will lead to higher distillate fuel margins:

    Diesel and jet fuel stocks are at historic lows, and seasonally-adjusted inventory draws are large and accelerating.
    Jet fuel consumption is poised to accelerate into summer with a return to international travel.
    High natural gas prices will lead to "gas to oil" switching in Europe and Asia.
    The Russia / Ukraine war will reduce distillate supply, as Russia exports ~900kb/d of diesel fuel and ~900kb/d of residual feedstocks, which are largely upgraded into diesel by European and Chinese refiners.
    Refinery operating costs are increasing, particularly in Europe.
    Futures curves suggest that distillate fuel margins will revert to historic averages in coming months; however, Goldman sees current record margins sustaining through at least year end:

    From an equity perspective, Par Pacific (PARR) is the most distillate-heavy refiner in the US and stands to benefit from increased summer travel. Particularly given the Company's Hawaii-heavy refining foot print. Names like Valero (VLO), Marathon (MPC) and Phillips (PSX) also stand to benefit from higher margins. In general, record demand paired with heavily reduced OECD refining capacity, should provide a tailwind for refinery profits in 2022.

    #mpc, #psx, #dino
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    The two most lopsided results in the recent NBC news poll indicated that registered voters preferred candidates who supported "funding police" and "expanding oil and gas".
    I hope this is the very beginning of "turning the tide".
    I think the tide may have turned in Europe where people, worried about freezing and starving, don't worry much about climate change.
    More to the point, maybe the administration and it's EPA will take it easy on oil refiners when they record record profits in the next 30 days.
    #MPC #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    The President’s proposal to release 1 million barrels of SPR oil per day, from now until the mid-term elections, has driven down all energy stocks this morning. However, I think this is good for refiners and expect those stocks to rebound quickly -- maybe even today
    A lower oil price encourages fuel demand and the government action should not hurt refiner crack spreads.

    Longer term, US oil E&P companies can look forward to increased demand and to the inevitable government purchases to replace the Strategic Petroleum Reserves.
    #MPC #PSX
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $DINO conversation
    Exxon Mobil had a fire at a refinery in Montana over the weekend that will affect production. This will make margins higher in the Rocky Mountain area, the Northwest and Nevada boosting profits for DINO. It was a 60,000 BPD refinery.

    #mpc, #vlo, #psx
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    The following are the regional crack spread indicators ($/barrel) provided by Valero for
    Q1-22, Q4-21, and Q1-21, respectively:

    Gulf Coast_______ 17.06____11.72____6.80
    Mid Con__________ 14.73____9.98_____8.52
    No Atlantic_______13.41____11.45____5.72
    West Coast_______20.35____16.16 ____7.84
    Ethanol ($/gal)_____ .36_____1.71______ .16
    Renewable Diesel__1.67____ 2.03_____2.01

    Cost of RINs (cents per gal)
    Ethanol___________114.2____112.8____108.1
    Biodiesel_________ 143.4____149.2____118.9

    These are the regional crack spread indicators ($/brl) provided by Marathon Petroleum for
    Q1-22, Q4-21, and Q1-21, respectively:

    Mid Con ______13.14____10.27___7.83
    Gulf Coast_____14.96____10.16___6.66
    West Coast ___26.46___16.50___10.63
    Blended_______16.53 ____11.47 ___7.92

    Please note:
    Calculation of crack spread indicators may not be comparable across the 2 companies.
    These are indicative, not actual. They will not reflect lower actual costs for purchases from non-typical crude sources. #MPC
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    Why This Is a ‘Golden Age’ for U.S. Refiners – Barrons, March 25 -- Excerpts #MPC #PSX
    U.S. oil refiners are once again making good money, but investors aren’t quite piling into the shares. They should be, a top energy analyst tells me. The profit boom could last through the end of the decade, helped by a price mishap that won’t be easy to fix: the giant premium Europe must pay for natural gas.
    Two key things to know about natural gas are that it plays a bigger role in the production of gasoline and other fuels than many investors realize, and it’s a colossal pain to transport.

    …… Russia had provided more than a quarter of Europe’s oil before the spigot was shut. That loss is manageable, because oil is easy to ship, so although prices are up everywhere, Texas crude at $112 a barrel isn’t far from Brent at $118. Natural gas is a different story. Russia supplied 40% of European demand, and there’s no easy replacement.

    At the current $30 differential per MMBtu between the U.S. and Europe, American refiners have a $9-a-barrel cost advantage, according to Doug Leggate, who runs U.S. oil and gas coverage at Bank of America Global Research. Under normal conditions, their long-run cash margin is only $5 a barrel.
    Prices won’t stay this skewed forever, of course. The U.S. and Europe are likely to put a rush on new shipping terminals. But those could nonetheless take several years to build. Leggate assumes the natural-gas price differential will fall to about $5 per MMBtu by the end of the decade. But even that would add $1.50 a barrel to U.S. cash profits, leaving them 30% larger than usual.

    Some European refiners could fold loss-making plants, leading the Continent to reduce shipments of refined products to the U.S., which would make the market here tighter. Already, demand is running ahead of supply, because during the pandemic, when roads emptied, refiners had to offer gasoline at a loss, and some cut capacity to save money.

    The bottom line for refiners is just that—bigger numbers on the bottom line. Valero Energy (VLO) is expected by Wall Street to earn $7.67 a share this year, versus a loss two years ago, and a $7.37 profit in its most recent year of plenty, 2018. The shares, at a recent $97, are up from pandemic lows, but they’re below their peak of over $120 reached in 2018. Leggate’s earnings estimates are much higher than consensus numbers, and he says that U.S. refiners are entering a new “golden age” that could propel share prices well higher. His price target for Valero, his top pick in the group, is $135, suggesting nearly 40% upside. He expects similar good things from shares of Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), and HF Sinclair (DINO).

    High profits don’t necessarily mean high pump prices. I asked Denton Cinquegrana, the chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service, or OPIS, a corporate cousin of Barron’s, what’s in store.
    He says that the national average for gasoline, recently below $4.30 a gallon, could flirt with $5 as summer driving peaks, and then fall below $4 by year end, as more supply comes online.
    “Don’t curse out the guy you’re buying gas from,” he says. “Chances are [he’s] not making a killing and not gouging you.”