Deutsche Märkte schließen in 2 Stunden 35 Minuten

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

NYSE - Nasdaq Echtzeitpreis. Währung in USD
Zur Watchlist hinzufügen
61,55+0,21 (+0,34%)
Börsenschluss: 4:00PM EDT
62,50 0,95 (1,54 %)
Vorbörslich: 08:28AM EDT
Melden Sie sich an, um eine Nachricht zu posten.
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Oil refinery shutdown signals growing challenges for sector

    A key oil refinery for U.S. East Coast consumers is halting operations after escalating environmental scrutiny made it impossible for backers to obtain desperately needed financing.

    The owners of the Limetree Bay refinery in the U.S. Virgin Islands announced plans Monday to shut the 200,000-barrel-a-day facility and dismiss more than 250 workers just weeks after a federal crackdown over a series of pollution incidents.

    The demise of Limetree Bay is the most dramatic fallout from the Biden administration’s plan to wean the world’s biggest economy off fossil fuels since the January cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline project. It’s also emblematic of the challenges facing an industry struggling with shrinking profitability, excess production capacity and rising competition from mega-refineries in Asia.

    Click here
    “There’s no reason we won’t see further closures in the U.S.,” said Robert Campbell, head of oil products research at Energy Aspects Ltd. Refiners will find it harder and harder to raise money for equipment upgrades and pollution-control gear, he noted.

    Refinery executives told employees on Monday that 271 of them will lose their jobs effective Sept. 19, according to a company statement that cited “severe financial constraints.”

    Limetree Bay has attracted the attention of environmental regulators since its backers that include ArcLight Capital Partners, Freepoint Commodities and EIG Global Energy Partners began efforts to restart the idled refinery in September.

    Last month, following a slew of emissions incidents that included contamination of drinking water, the Environmental Protection Agency ordered it to halt operations, reversing a Trump administration approval.

    Known formerly as Hovensa, the St. Croix plant was previously owned by Hess Corp. and Venezuela’s state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA before it was shuttered in 2012. Once a major supplier of gasoline and diesel to the East Coast markets, the facility was mothballed during a previous downturn in demand and increased international competition.

    Roughly 2 million barrels of daily refining capacity may be shut next year to avoid further margin erosion, BloombergNEF analyst Sisi Tang said in a report. The transition away from fossil fuels also dims the long-term outlook for refiners, prompting companies such as Valero Energy Corp. to expand into biofuels.

    #MPC
    #PSX
    #HFC
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    This is good news- June 21 (Reuters) - Limetree Bay Energy will suspend plans to restart its 210,000 barrel per day refinery in St. Croix indefinitely due to severe financial restaints, the company said Monday.

    #MPC
    #PSX
    #HFC
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Fuel for Thought: US Refiners, RINs and the RVO


    The mandates for blending renewables into US transportation fuels have been a contentious issue for refiners from their inception, when Congress enacted ethanol mandates in 2005, citing national energy security as a reason.

    Refining icon Tom O'Malley, the then recently retired CEO of PBF Energy, railed against ethanol blending on PBF's Q1 2013 earnings call, dubbing it the "Food for Fuels Program," a subsidy for farmers at the expense of refiners.

    "Let's convert all the food to fuel, that way we can drive and starve to death while we are driving," he said.

    But times and circumstances have dramatically changed. The shale revolution turned the US into an oil exporter, neutralizing issues around energy security, which have given way to concerns about climate change and greenhouse emissions. But the issue of renewables remain a bone of contention as refiners chafe at the loss of market share and high price of compliance.

    And while the program administering the use of renewables in hydrocarbon-based fuel has also evolved over time under the Environmental Protection Agency's more sophisticated and complex Renewable Fuel Standard, some industry participants think it is time for an overhaul to make the RFS more in tune and responsive to current reality.

    The RFS sets blending mandates not just for ethanol, but for advanced biofuels, biomass-based diesel, and cellulosic biofuel, considered a unicorn fuel by some since it has never met its RFS volume requirements and is rarely seen.

    Renewable Identification Numbers, or RINs, are the currency of the RFS. If a refiner cannot meet its EPA-assigned annual blend target, they must buy RINs credits on the open market to make up the shortfall to meet their obligation.

    While individual refiner RVOs are closely guarded, S&P Global Platts assesses the RVO as a value calculated using daily RINs prices and biofuel mandates for per-gallon compliance costs.

    The RFS's RVO by design rises annually based on the assumption that fuel demand will rise.

    However, pandemic lockdowns had a deleterious impact on transportation fuel demand in 2020, pushing it far below that of 2019. It also pushed most refiners' earnings into negative territory for much of 2020 and Q1 2021, while laying bare the flaws of the RFS' renewable volume obligation on refiners, trying to meet non-existent demand.

    "As fuel demand destruction increased [throughout 2020] ... the 'RIN basket,' or the price of all RINs refiners must obtain for RFS compliance, rose over 500% on the year," PBF wrote in a Feb. 18 letter to the EPA.

    "This occurred as refining crack spreads remained weak—and even turned negative at one point," the letter said.

    Volatile RINs markets fueled by uncertainty
    RINs prices, particularly D6 ethanol RINs and D4 biodiesel RINs, have skyrocketed over the past few quarters as lower gasoline and diesel demand in 2020 led to lower blending and less RIN creation, making less RINs available.

    So far in Q2 2021, D6 ethanol RINs are averaging $1.62981/RIN, while D4 Biodiesel RINs are averaging $1.710254/RIN, compared with 2020 annual average values of 43.20 cents/RIN and 64.15/RIN, respectively, Platts assessments show.

    And the RVO, which averaged 13.146 cents/gal in Q1 2021, is now averaging 19.485 cents/gal in Q2 2021.

    One factor adding to the volatility of RINs prices is the delay by the EPA in setting 2021 blending mandates. This delay was exacerbated by waiting for the US Supreme Court ruling on small refinery exemptions. On April 27, the Supreme Court heard on appeal the small refinery exemption case brought by HollyFrontier after it was denied an exemption by the Tenth District Court.

    But news June 16 from the Office of Budget Management that the EPA, which had missed its Nov. 30, 2020, deadline for 2021 mandates, will set preliminary levels in July to be finalized in December sent D6 ethanol RIN prices to three-month lows.

    The OMB news jibes with market sentiment that the EPA is not expected to release its 2021 renewable volume obligations until after the Supreme Court decision on the small refinery exemption case is reached, according to a refining source familiar with the situation.

    "There's a lot being discussed, and the EPA has no direction," he said. "They are paralyzed by the small refinery case."

    "They will wait for the SCOTUS decision on the SRE before they release the biofuel mandate," he added, which could potentially be delivered in late June or early July.

    The EPA wants to see "where the pieces land" before they come out with an RFS mandate for 2021, the source said, to ensure it takes into account all stakeholders, including refiners and biofuel producers.

    Small refiners sidelined
    Despite a slight fall in RINs prices recently, most small refiners...

    #MPC
    #PSX
    #HFC
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    "Mama said there'll be days like this,
    There'll be days like this Mama said"
    The Shirelles 1961
    Unfortunately, we can't have a correction to the oil price without dragging down refiners (in the same indexes and funds)
    #MPC #PSX
  • K
    Kermit
    Cenovus Energy Inc.
    Demand is coming back faster than supply and we're going to need more supply to meet that demand," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, would need to boost output to meet demand set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.

    "OPEC+ needs to open the taps to keep the world oil markets adequately supplied," the Paris-based energy watchdog said.

    $SU $CNQ $ENB $COP $BP $OXY $VET $XOM $TOT $CVX $MPC $EOG $CLR $EPD $E $KMI $PSX $HAL $PTR $SNP $WMB $BKR $EC $IMO $CQP $MMP $TRP $XOG
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    The New Test Facing Big-Energy CEOs: How to Be Credible in Public
    Stephen Arbogast Barrons June 4, 2021 Excerpts
    "In reality, the energy CEOs’ challenge goes well beyond communications. The real issues in the transition to a lower-carbon energy future remain largely submerged.
    What are these issues? First, are the solutions touted by climate activists—such as wind and solar power and battery storage—really adequate to accomplish the goals? Second, what collateral damage are we willing to accept in pursuit of the transition goals? Those might include higher energy costs, grid instability, geopolitical consequences, lifestyle changes, and slower economic growth. Third, what trade-offs are climate activists willing to make to give industry and governments more-feasible and lower-cost transition pathways?

    To illustrate the third issue, are climate activists ready to support long-distance transmission lines or pipelines to carry carbon dioxide? Oklahoma wind power could be economical in North Carolina, but that would require new power lines through four states. Technology exists to capture CO2 at the natural-gas power plants that keep the grid reliable, but use or storage of that CO2 probably involves transporting it to the Gulf Coast. Shifting the discussion to such issues with enough credibility to facilitate negotiations with diverse stakeholders now lies at the heart of the CEOs’ public role.

    To get to net zero emissions by 2050, Duke must grow its electricity generation fleet from today’s 58 gigawatts to 105 GW. Some of this growth will meet higher demand as the economy electrifies. A good deal involves replacing high-capacity power generation, like coal plants, with intermittent generation. Adding renewables, even with battery storage, doesn’t compensate for shuttered fossil fuel or nuclear capacity. Even after a 40 GW buildout of wind and solar, Duke will need to extend its existing nuclear fleet and keep considerable natural gas in the mix. Finally, there are 13 GW of we-don’t-know-what in the resource plan. Duke called them “zero emissions, load following resources,” or Zelfrs. Small modular nuclear reactors and carbon capture were mentioned as possible solutions.

    This exercise in reality-checking brings up many issues for discussion. How much capital would be required? What will it cost, and what power prices would be required to accomplish it? What consequences does it pose for other issues, like the competitiveness of North Carolina’s economy? Will the Zelfrs materialize? Would less aggressive decarbonization by Duke yield a better overall solution? Duke hasn’t yet provided its answers to such questions. But now there is a framework within which to discuss them. This kind of comprehensive framework empowers CEOs to present the difficult realities facing them and address them with shareholders, investors, and society.

    Oil and gas firms face a harder credibility challenge. Their business appears more directly threatened, and it’s more difficult for them to see new business opportunities that promise attractive returns.
    One credibility test will involve carbon capture sequestration/utilization. Developed at scale, it could preserve much energy infrastructure and be useful in the developing world, where fewer transition options exist. But for it to emerge, oil and gas CEOs are going to have to move beyond mere messaging. They are going to have to prove that they have capture technology, and invest the money to show that it works at scale and can be deployed in some locations where, with current incentives, it can reward investors. Creating some facts on the ground like these would better position fossil-fuel CEOs to take up other issues that they properly feel shouldn’t remain submerged.

    Over time, the transition will require all energy CEOs to address the submerged issues in their sector or face challenges from investors and the public. For example, at some point, renewable-firm CEOs will be called to address renewables’ “all-in costs,” the natural limits to their growth, and the necessary complements to their deployment. The sooner all energy CEOs can move their messaging to their action plans for addressing such complex challenges, the sooner we can achieve an affordable transition that mitigates serious climate risk."

    #MPC #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    Impressive EIA fuel demand numbers for week ending May 21. Both gasoline and distillate demand were greater than last week, last year, and two years ago. #MPC
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    TOKYO— Toyota Motor Corp. said most of its U.S. vehicles would still run on gasoline a decade from now because it doesn’t think fully electric vehicles will have caught up in cost and convenience.
    Toyota doubled down on its commitment to a technology it pioneered, hybrid vehicles, which are fueled with gasoline but also have an electric motor that raises fuel efficiency. The company projected that in 2030, slightly more than half of the vehicles it sells in North America would be hybrids, while around 30% would run on traditional gasoline engines and the remainder would be fully electric.
    WSJ, 5/12, 1st paragraph #MPC #PSX
  • D
    Doug Mather
    $MPC conversation
    MPC Halted - NEWS $MPC - MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP - PLAN TO COMMENCE A CASH TENDER OFFER TO PURCHASE UP TO $4 BLN OF COMMON STOCK & Marathon Petroleum Corp. Announces Close of $21 Billion Speedway Sale and Return of Capital Plans
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported a massive draw in crude oil inventories of 7.688 million barrels for the week ending April 30.
    "If the bulls weren't cheering enough already for the crude stock drawdown, they certainly will for the gasoline drawdown. The API reported a draw in gasoline inventories of 5.308 million barrels for the week ending April 30—after the previous week's 1.288 million barrels .
    Distillate stocks, too, saw a decrease in inventories this week of 3.453 million barrels for the week, after last week's 2.417-barrel decrease."
    #MPC #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    A slightly different view on climate change #MPC #PSX #FCX
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/unsettled-review-theconsensus-on-climate-11619383653
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    So, if pipeline workers can just "go find another job" then welfare recipients can too, right?
    #PSX #MPC
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    US gasoline demand for week ending Friday was 9.1 million barrels. This was 2% above last week, 71% above last year, and only 3% below 2 years ago.

    Per EIA: “Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.9 million barrels a day, up by 61.5% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 15.9% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 62.9% compared with the same”

    Positive trends may be sticking. #MPC #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    As Phil posted and others commented, this very disappointing news forces us to consider the possibility of a dividend cut. If so, VLO won't likely be alone. #MPC #PSX
    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/valero-vlo-sees-winter-storm-uri-impact-on-q1-bottom-line-2021-04-09
  • F
    Fritz1967
    $VLO conversation
    Sunnier outlook means it's refining's turn to shine, J.P. Morgan says
    Feb. 22, 2021 7:44 PM ETValero Energy Corporation (VLO)By: Jason Aycock, SA News Editor
    Weighing the latest information from Texas' deep freeze, J.P. Morgan is reflecting on a more optimistic outlook for U.S. refineries - and says it would shift some capital that way, with industry conditions improving.
    The firm is raising crack spread forecasts, taking into account not only shorter-term supply disruption impacts from the Texas freeze, but also pent-up demand from the COVID-19 recovery, and longer-term impacts of "permanent U.S. capacity reductions, particularly for gasoline."
    Refiners have lagged exploration/production companies during the recovery, "for good reason, until now," the firm says. Downstream has lagged upstream by about 13% since the end of 2019, and the recovery off the bottom has been slower for refining margins than for oil prices.
    "Refiners have been hit by the double whammy of weak demand and tight crude diffs caused by OPEC Plus curtailments and shale discipline," the firm says. "However, with demand now improving and OPEC Plus committed to release some barrels back to the market, we think that this should be good for refiners."
    Meanwhile, the weight of COVID-19 on near-term mobility should begin to lighten, in part due to vaccine distribution progress. That could make gasoline distribution dynamics "fairly snug" considering capacity reductions.
    And diesel margins could take a little longer to recover given knock-on effects of a lagged recovery in demand for jet fuel - though demand has been strong on a combination of shipping-related end markets and cold weather.
    Extending its models into 2023, J.P. Morgan sees about 20% total return potential for the sector by the end of the year. (Further out, it says electric vehicle penetration rates will become a headwind, though likely not until at least 2025.)
    In terms of individual stocks, the new look has led to shuffled ratings as well. It's staying Overweight on Valero (NYSE:VLO) due to "pure-play GC refining exposure and growing Renewable Diesel business," and it's upgrading Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) to Overweight as well - "as we like its post-Speedway sale setup, with higher torque to refining, improved spending discipline on capex/opex, a much improved balance sheet and potential for material share buybacks."
    A Valero price target boost to $87 from $71 implies 17% upside, while a raise in its Marathon target to $67 from $52 implies 22% upside from current pricing.
    It's also upgrading Par Pacific Holdings (NYSE:PARR) to Neutral since it's materially lagged peers so far in 2021.
    On the flip side, it's downgrading Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) to Neutral, expecting lower-than-consensus earnings this year. And it's staying Neutral on HollyFrontier (NYSE:HFC) due to near-term capex profile.
    The firm is also remaining relative Underweight on Delek U.S. Holdings (NYSE:DK) and PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF) due to valuation/leverage profiles.

    #MPC
    #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    Barrons -- Americans Are Getting Back on the Road. 3 Stocks to Buy.-- By Andrew Bary, May 29, 2020

    Driving is rebounding as the economy reopens and Americans take to their cars, viewing them as being more protected spaces than airplanes, trains, or other mass transit. That looks bullish for Marathon Petroleum (ticker: MPC) and other big refining stocks, such as Valero Energy (VLO) and Phillips 66 (PSX), that have bounced off their March lows, but are still down an average of 30% this year.

    Marathon, whose shares trade around $35, is a play on rising gasoline demand. It is also a sum-of-the-parts story, with the No. 1 independent U.S. refiner by capacity planning to spin off its valuable Speedway division by year end.
    Speedway is the No. 2 company-owned gasoline and convenience-store group in the country, behind only Alimentation Couche-Tard of Canada (ATD.B.Canada). Thanks to high-margin impulse purchases by drivers, convenience stores command higher valuations than supermarket chains. Marathon could be worth more than $50 a share in a breakup.

    Phillips 66 and Valero are favored by J.P. Morgan analyst Phil Gresh. Valero is a well-managed pure-play refiner with a strong balance sheet. Phillips 66 is the industry leader with the safest dividend, and it offers a “best in class alternative to the oil majors,” Gresh recently wrote. Phillips 66 has refining, pipeline, chemical, and retail businesses—everything except energy production. Marathon yields 6.6%; Valero, 5.8%; and Phillips 66, 4.6%.

    Gasoline demand was down around 40%, year over year, in April, but the comparison improved to an estimated 20% drop in May, according to Gresh.
    Investors are focused on gasoline usage during the remainder of 2020. Mizuho analyst Paul Sankey has predicted “record” demand for the fuel this summer, as Americans vacation domestically, rather than taking trips abroad.
    Gresh is not quite as optimistic, forecasting a 5% drop in demand in the third and fourth quarters. He wrote last week that he saw “negative factors like the recession (unemployment) and telecommuting more than offsetting the positive factors like the shift from air/mass transit to vehicles and the possibility of more staycations this summer.”

    Gasoline prices, now averaging about $2 a gallon for regular nationally, aren’t expected to rise much this summer, based on futures quotes, even with a strong driving season.
    The outlook for refining is admittedly not rosy at the moment. Jet fuel demand is weak, and utilization rates are historically low. The entire U.S. industry—with the exception of Phillips 66—is expected to lose money in 2020, but investors are looking out to 2021 and 2022, as they are with other hard-hit industries.
    And Marathon may be the cheapest stock in the group.

    At its current share price, investors are effectively paying little or nothing for the company’s refining business when factoring in the potential $20 billion value of Speedway and the $13 billion market value of Marathon’s majority stake in MPLX (MPLX), one of the country’s largest pipeline operators.
    Credit Suisse’s Manav Gupta wrote this month that he is pleased that Michael Hennigan, who became Marathon’s chief executive in March, is focused on “strict cost control, capital discipline,” and operational improvement. Hennigan’s predecessor, Gary Heminger, was more of an empire builder.
    The activist investor Elliott Management took aim at Marathon and Heminger last September, arguing that the stock, then around $55, was “severely undervalued” and worth at least $89 a share on a sum-of-the-parts basis.
    Elliott’s broadside came when the refining business was much stronger than it is now, but if the stock merely gets back to $55, it would be about a 55% gain.
    #MPC #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    MS March 11 paper on oil, gas and refining -- excerpts
    "Refining & Marketing: Margins increase as the Texas deep freeze accelerates product market rebalancing. We are raising our 2021 and 2022 EPS by 30% and 72%, to be 33% and 45% above consensus, respectively. We had previously expressed our cautious optimism of the product market given the strong supply response with reduced refinery runs, delayed new investments, and a wave of announced refinery closures. The recent deep freeze in Texas, which shut down roughly 20% of the nation's refining capacity at one point has accelerated the tightening of the product market, in our view. Sustained demand recovery is still key to the refining recovery trade and that remains contingent on successful vaccine efficacy and distribution. We also believe there is the potential for a strong gasoline market over the medium term after the COVID recovery, given we estimate there will be ~550-600 Mbbl/d of lost US gasoline production from recently announced refinery closures. This could cause the US to be more reliant on imports, especially if the export demand tension from LatAm remains strong. We reiterate our Overweights VLO, MPC, and PSX, which offer large cap exposure to the refining recovery as well as idiosyncratic elements that drive value beyond the refining trade (VLO with its peer leading renewable diesel opportunity, MPC with its Speedway proceeds that could underpin a buyback of up to 25-35% of outstanding shares after rightsizing the balance sheet, and PSX with its dynamic and diversified business model)
    Revised price targets
    DK EW 27.00 from 18.00
    HFC EW 47.00 from 34.00
    MPC OW 75.00 from 52.00
    PBF UW 17.50 from 9.00
    PSX OW 105.00 from 82.00
    VLO OW 100.00 from 74.00
    #MPC #PSX
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    In my opinion, yesterday’s significant decline in refiner stocks – including MPC -- was largely due to Heminger’s comments that MPC was canceling a coker project because of a negative long-term outlook on heavy crude differentials. They then drove home the point by blaming narrow crude discounts on Q1 refining results -- that they added the ANDV refineries, ran at 95% utilization, and managed to generate $334M in refining losses.
    MPC had strong results in Midstream and Retail but Refining was very disappointing.
    Morgan Stanley wrote a note in which they believe the negative market reaction was overdone. I will try to post excerpts on the MPC board.
    #MPC
  • D
    Dennis
    $VLO conversation
    The death of the US refining business has been greatly exaggerated. This is admittedly the worst refining environment I have seen. I believe conditions will improve but timing is difficult to predict

    US gasoline and diesel sales volumes will return when Covid appears controlled. I don’t know how long that will take nor whether it will take an approved vaccine. The similar Spanish Flu of 1918 just faded away after 2 years. We should do better in 2020.
    A portion of the US workforce will continue to work at home while another portion will prefer commuting in the relative safety of automobiles. There has been some exodus from urban to suburban areas. I think this will also encourage auto usage.

    Crack spreads have been unpredictable. I think that, despite OPEC efforts, world crude supply will be overabundant while prices stay low. The key will be whether US refiners can control their own fuel production, keeping inventories down and prices up. If some small refineries don’t survive Covid, large refiners may benefit.

    Electric vehicles will grow as a percentage of US cars and trucks but, in my opinion, not as quickly as proponents expect. High cost and lack of charging stations will limit growth. Assuming that Democrats control the government next year, likely efforts to encourage adoption of EVs with subsidies and tax incentives will encounter a few obstacles
    -- We will coming out of recession with massive deficits. Funds to build EV infrastructure will be limited
    -- The existing electric grid is limited. Whether it can handle heavy volume of auto charging and air conditioning every night is questionable. It is also questionable whether windmills and solar panels can ever provide enough electricity. Nuclear power may be the only solution but that brings its own issues.
    -- Other points worth noting are that the current EV base is very small, so reported percentage growth may be misleading. EV adoption will always be influenced by gasoline prices that are low and unlikely to increase significantly. At some point, there will be questions about whether sitting on a giant battery for a long time is healthy. Finally, government efforts to encourage EV adoption may be seen as excessively benefiting one company

    There are legitimate concerns that a Democratic sweep will result in US refiners being hurt by increased taxes, RIN obligations, and EPA regulations. This will likely hurt refiner profits but the extent is impossible to estimate. I think that this, along with all the risks and uncertainties mentioned above, is already built into current refiner stock prices. Of course, this is what I choose to believe. I could be wrong.

    #MPC #PSX