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McDonald's Corporation (MCD)
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A couple of bullish arguments I have not seen anyone mention:
1. $AMZN lost money for years while building their scale, depth and breadth. The end result is clear market dominance and the profits arrive gradually.
2. $DASH has unique knowledge about their customers’ consumption patterns. It’s a marketing goldmine. No single merchant has the ability to match it. If you are $MCD, wouldn’t you want to know if your customer also orders soups and fried rice? What about if that customer also buys Wendy’s? Goldmine.
Evil Jimmy Z
Huge volume yesterday. 3x normal. Due to $BYND getting a boost from $MCD. And what did bagholders do? THEY SOLD.
They sold into strength. That tells me we're nowhere near the bottom. You're all just waiting for a green day to unload your huge bags. And I don't blame you. This is going to zero.
Green Thumb Industries Inc.
Another challenging day for my MSOs... $GTBIF is the exception. Last night, I gave a presentation (via $ZM) at my monthly investor meeting. The topic: American Cannabis ...in short, I liken the prudent accumulation of certain names...$GTBIF $TCNNF $CURLF $CRLBF $CCHWF to accumulating $MCD common shares back when they were selling burgers for 15 pennies. It was well-received. I am of the mind that the short term trough is at the bottom. The members are split (so far) on that issue. The overall risk/reward, valuation, likely catalyst, opportunity cost are all favorable. I added shares to all names in my basket today. Averaging up on all except for Columbia. I'll share our price targets (combined average) when available. It'll be a month. gl2a.
Did some corner of the envelope math: $SHAK restaurants are valued at around $12 million a unit (SHAK's market cap, divided by number of current units). For reference, $MCD per unit val is about $4 million. At the moment, $HABT has a per-unit market valuation of just $1.2 million per unit...one-tenth the valuation of #SHAK, and a quarter of McDonald's. Seems to me the upside is with $HABT and not $SHAK, strictly on how the market is valuing the respective companies on a per-unit/market cap basis.
I see many devoted fans here are confused by marketing and fraudulent "GROWTH" narrative and projections by insiders, management and buy-side WS analysts, while completely ignoring VALUATION and NUMBERS in general, and those posted quarter after quarter. They are confusing their feelings promoted by marketing ("lines out the door," "pay for quality," "growth" etc.) with ACTUAL NUMBERS - i.e., consistently LOWER "foot" traffic / SSS in existing older units, sharply lower A&Q revenue growth rates, steadily higher cost of inputs / expenses from leases to labor to staples / commodities to increase in debt and net liabilities, and documented history of incompetence - mismanaged product rollouts, R&D and strategies, stock and brand dilution, etc ... while its CEO sells massive amounts of stock and its founder / COB and largest individual shareholder is selling $10s of millions in stock and investing and lending his celebrity in other companies / competitors like Panera's SPAC-IPO.
The REAL PRODUCT of this company is $SHAK stock and the REAL "MODEL" is pump-and-dump every quarter (make your bets / options accordingly) by unrealistic but optimistic narrative about the "future" by management and buy-side analysts. Not surprisingly, the new CFO was Goldman Sachs analyst who was the first to sharply raise PT to $95 after bad 2019Q2 quarter.
You can argue the taste and "quality" all you want but you can't argue with SHAK's growing ever worse NUMBERS and its VALUATION - the word not surprisingly missing from most SHAK fans.
Using P/S (8x) to compare with $MCD is silly - MCD is really a REIT / real estate company that mostly franchises and their Operating Margin (OM) is 15x-20x that of SHAK (and that's when SHAK's OM is not negative which is most of the time). For those who have problems understanding numbers - it means that MCD makes loads of money on their operations and SHAK doesn't, so to compare them on basis of P/S is like comparing apples to park benches. In other words, when MCD opens new units, it ACQUIRES ASSETS, when SHAK opens new units, it ACQUIRES LIABILITIES. Even with lower revenues since 2013, MCD kept lowering expenses to produce stable or slightly higher gross and operating profit.
Even very overpriced (food and stock) Chipotle ($CMG) which has Gross Margin of about 50%-35% of SHAK and much lower revenue per unit, has OM of 2x-3x of SHAK's best OM-positive year because of lean operations and no need to "buy expensive high foot traffic", so CMG can grow organically while SHAK's AUV and sales per sqft keep going down.
Negative CS and FCF, but always boasting about positive ADJUSTED EBITDA (mostly useless measure except for management and analysts that want to cover up the extent of "other" expenses - Enron and other frauds loved to use it in their reports and ECs while bleeding actual cash) even when EBIT is negative, which is one of the first signs of fraudulent enterprise.
Reliance on very expensive, high-traffic areas and semi-affluent / mass-affluent or "while we are here let's splurge once for a very expensive burger and see if it's anywhere worth the price" so it's not surprising that 75%-80% of SHAK's first time visitors have "one and done" experience and never return - there are too many other restaurants including really "better" burgers - the "captive market" idea doesn't usually work long term.
The idea that when SHAK stops opening the units it will suddenly start producing amazing profits is based on fundamental misunderstanding of its "model" and market economics and accounting - IN REALITY, they will just stop "growing" / "buying" revenue and will keep producing same losses because their operating margins are just too thin due to its "model" high built-in expenses (which will include even more service on the debt accumulated to build these units) and traffic even slower due to brand dilution and fresh "new new thing" competition - only insiders and WS will already suck all the money out of it and nobody is going to give them 500x P/E of imaginary "estimated next year profits".
Some SHAK myths :
My office is staying at home but I sent a courier to deliver our monthly third Monday $MCD lunch to their homes. Today’s menu includes the Double Big Mac, McChicken, fries and 4 apple pies, so that kids get a snack if needed. Thanks Speedy Delivery for your efforts and thanks to $MCD for getting this out on time.
08-14-2020 @DAVE ... "That is unbelievably amazing... The EXACT same thing has happened in the past as well. Why doesn't the S.E.C. investigate something like that?" ...
Many possible reasons:
1. SEC is in a slumber, but should someone with "heft" or stature bring this to SEC or FinCEN, they might listen.
2. SEC is a well-known "revolving door" of people who used to or would like to in the near future work in a private sector, for a lot more money and bennies, having SEC / gov't service experience and relationships on their resumes. Many at the top and middle layers of SEC currently don't know where they will be in 6 months, so investigating WS financial shenanigans may not be exactly their priorities at this time.
3. Many in the investment industry (some may now be at SEC and later be back "on the Street") have probably dined in one or more Danny Meyer's fine-dining Union Square Hospitality Group (USHG) 20+ NYC restaurants, and would like to do so again when some or all of them reopen; also Meyer is sitting on several boards of companies with potential IPO and some that will certainly need WS help with raising money through loans and/or other financial services that WS lives on (just like recent recap via dilution of $SHAK) and he is also involved in some feel-good non-profits and restaurant / farming community organizations. Maybe that's why they have been so brazen about it, they may feel at best ignored and at worst untouchable.
That's why Meyer's USHG and Shake Shack share the similar marketing theme (easy to search): "Union Square Hospitality Group's BELOVED restaurants, cafes, and bars..." / "Union Square Hospitality Group has created some of New York's most BELOVED restaurants, cafes, bars..." / "USHG is the hospitality company founded by Danny Meyer, and owner of some of New York City's most BELOVED restaurants." / "We love to reimagine BELOVED, classic dishes..." / "The (fill in the city) Shack serves up all the BELOVED Shake Shack classics..." etc. etc. - it's in their 10Ks, 10Qs annual reports and all marketing literature. "Iconic" and "cult" are other monikers they use - that's how you sell inferior products at higher prices to tourists and brand-curious, and that's why they need high-traffic places like malls and terminals, stadiums to attract casual traffic and sustain high AUV - but their retainment rate is low, 75% of first-time visitors never come back, so expenses are high, gross and the net margins are low and the business model at these high valuations is not sustainable over long term.
5. Now, an article about ridiculous valuations and of these WS + SHAK insiders stock shenanigans in highly regarded financial publication(s) or a statement by a well-known short-seller would go a long way to get attention of SEC / FinCEN, but in this environment of The Fed and Fed gov't flooding the market with trillions of dollars to bail out "the market" and "leave no zombie company behind" it's not a sure thing that it will turn into something concrete. After 2007-2008 GFC market crash and unraveling of Madoff's decades-long Ponzi scheme operation a lot of mini-Madoffs were uncovered and busted... I guess we are still some ways from Zombie Companies Apocalypse, staved off by Trillions of dollars, some flowing to companies that should be saved while most going to WS Mafia Laundromats "washing" money through entities like $SHAK and some other zombies, with insiders sharing in the booty.
I and a few others on this board (and some articles in Forbes, SeekingAlpha, etc.) have been documenting for more than a year this financial engineering fraud and the "love story" between WS Mafia and SHAK insiders and there are enough forensic accounting evidence to bring this to logical conclusion - the question is, would anyone blow the whistle loud enough for SEC or FinCEN to wake up and do their jobs? Shake Shack CFO ("Chief Financial Engineering Officer") Tara Comonte was promoted to President in the beginning of this year - ever wondered why? CFO + President is unusual and rare; CEO + Pres, Pres + COO, CEO + COO are much more common. Randy Garutti is completely incompetent as CEO flailing in different directions, trying one failed scheme after another (GrubHub exclusivity, trying to emulate Chipotlane with pretty "Jetsons"-like sketches, "digital ecosystem" etc.), he is just a marketing cheerleader spouting usual slogans "brand," "opportunity for growth" and "I don't care about margins, I just want to sell more burgers - that brings in cash" on ERs, "investor conferences" and CNBC.
Well, we'll find out next week if only 1,666 left open from last $55 LIMIT order have been filled... or maybe they used the opportunity today to also "park" another 25K shares for Danny Meyer, on no-news low-vol day with $SHAK "somehow" being up nearly 3% during the day while $CMG, $MCD, $WEN, $QSR, $SBUX etc. were all down or just barely in the green at the same time?
I have an idea. Cook $MCD French fries in CBD oil. Joints will be more flexible and older clientele will be using the drivethru as a therapeutic.
Something does not add up - apart from the question about the quality/offering by what is in effect a fast food takeaway, Valuation PER OUTLET (pls don't call it Restaurant) is $9.6 Mio, this is insanity, Revs per outlet 2.15 Mio, that is in line with many restaurants, Net just 130k, also roughly in line, restaurants ARE NO GOLD MINE in the best of times, compare this to $MCD, McDonalds, that is bit problematic comparision as it is a franchise model, but still, val per outlet 3.6 Mio, highish but after all there is a strong franchise with long track record, sales per outlet basically a franchise fee, but net 150K, so not that different, so why is $CMG valued nearly 3 TIMES higher?
New CEO putting his money where his mouth is, buys $500k of $MCD today on the open market.
I know that owning $MCD has made my portfolio quite fetching for young ladies all over town. I get so much action I can hardly find time to go get my Filet o Fish
I bought 100 pies today at $MCD and took them to local hospitals for the ER and staff.
I bought into $MCD this morning...maybe that will be my Sea Biscut. or Silver Lining at least
Made a portfolio for my grand babies added some $MO $BUD $MCD as well as some oil stonks
2 McChickens today, big earnings pop likely. Long $MCD
Splurged for the office today, bought everyone a Filet o Fish with extra tartar sauce, fries and a strawberry custard pie. We sent someone to Starbucks to get coffee but the line for the bathroom was around the block so we got $MCD coffee too. Smooth but strong, I liked it. Won’t go back to $SBUX it’s trying to be a sanctuary city.
Hearing $mcd - news releases tonight/this weekend - bears lost again - chepa calls for tomorrow - 147 close....IMO - :)))))
$MCD under $209! Keep collecting, projected for $300+ next year.
Everyone at the office is very high on the $MCD McChicken and Filet of Fish buffet we set up on Fridays. Coffee and orange juice too. Plus the pies. Cost effective and fun Friday bonding with the team. Get a lot of Mickey D’s for $500 a week.
My office staff loves the McChicken this week. We lost a big customer and need to tighten our belt. Go $MCD
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