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Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP)

NYSE - NYSE Verzögerter Preis. Währung in USD
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71,49+1,70 (+2,44%)
Börsenschluss: 04:00PM EDT
72,00 +0,51 (+0,71%)
Nachbörse: 05:43PM EDT
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  • t
    trevorthegreat
    Easy day to flip between $CP and $CNR! Great work, team! Don’t care who comes out ahead because I believe this duopoly continues well beyond my lifetime #ThankYou
  • G
    GM
    $UNP conversation
    Key factor for forward rail intermodal container volumes is whether import boxes come into US West Coast or East Coast. Coronavirus is changing the coastal equation. See new FreightWaves coverage of latest data on how import flows are changing: $UNP $CSX $NSC $CP $CNI $KSU https://www.freightwaves.com/news/need-for-speed-drives-ships-toward-pacific-ports
    E-commerce and coronavirus fallout are buoying container services from Asia to the West Coast.
    E-commerce and coronavirus fallout are buoying container services from Asia to the West Coast.
    www.freightwaves.com
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    Hanjin Shipping bankrupt.

    "Hanjin, the world’s seventh-largest container shipper, represents nearly 8 per cent of the trans-Pacific trade volume for the U.S. market."

    "...Global demand and trade have suffered since the 2008 recession, while steamship lines continued to build more and larger vessels — immense ships that were conceived as cost-effective when freight costs were higher several years ago.
    But weaker trade and overcapacity have sent ocean shipping rates plunging in recent years. A few months ago, Poskus said, prices hit historic lows globally — down to as much as $600 per container from Shanghai to Los Angeles.

    That wouldn’t even cover fuel costs for the huge ships, he said...."
    ------------------
    NSC and CSX had better get REAL religion on cost cutting, and fast.
    'Cause there ain't no Panamax boatloads of extra freight comin' to save your sorry, coal-covered SSSSes.
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    The gloves are off, and CP ain't puttin' up with being the Canuckistan government's punching bag no more.

    This year will be another giant grain crop, which in Canada means "Complain about the Incompetent Railways" season, a festival made famous by Lisa Raiitt, professional panderer to the ignorant.

    Well, Hunter learned a lesson form the last go round, and is now planning to publicly shame those who are truly to blame...

    ie the Port of Vancouver and its Hell's Angel henchmen who won't work weekends (or even break a sweat Mon-Fri), the grain terminal operators who don't order enough railcars, and stupid farmers who expect to hang on to last year's crop until the last second, hoping like drug addicts for an extra penny in price, at the risk of the entire system.

    The gloves are off, and CP ain't puttin' up with being the Canuckistan government's punching bag no more.
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    "Given the delayed grain harvest, lower crude volumes and persistent economic challenges compounded by a strengthening Canadian dollar, we are now expecting mid-single-digit EPS growth this year," Harrison said. "While disappointed that we will not meet our previous forecast, I am incredibly proud that despite these challenges, CP will deliver its lowest-ever annual operating ratio..."
    ----------------------------

    There's still no freight, (due in part to the longstanding stubbornness of grain farmers, most of whom couldn't run a successful cockfight).

    So what does a competent management do?
    Control costs.
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    One to watch. Paul Hilal's new fund: Mantle Ridge.

    Paul was the Pershing brain that came up with and executed the CP plan.
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    So the CFO at CP is leaving. We'll likely never know any more about it than what the press release says about his reasons.

    But there is one unequivocal fact, no matter if it came into play in this specific instance or not.

    When you formally relegate an industry to never becoming any more than it is today, by officially prohibiting any kind of material, transformative changes and improvements (as American regulators have decided to do. Again.), then companies in that industry will certainly lose their most ambitious, capable, challenge-seeking employees. They will go to other employers in industries with better prospects for career advancement, company growth and exciting change.

    And the industry will lose the interest of investors like Bill Ackman. Replaced with more brain-dead coupon clippers who charge 2.5% on their assets under mgmt.

    And what you're left with is exactly what you have ....the unambitious, comfortable, corner office chasers.
    America's Railroads. Some things never change...and never isn't long enough !
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    From Pershing Square's Q3 letter to investors:

    ....Over the past two quarters, we have exited our investments in Canadian Pacific and Zoetis, two highly successful activist engagements that have contributed substantially to our profits over the years. While we consider both to be high quality businesses run by extremely able management teams, we harvested these investments to free up capital for new commitments.

    ....In our August 26, 2016 Investor letter we reported the sale of our remaining 9.8 million shares of CP on August 4, 2016, approximately five years from the inception of the investment. During the course of our investment, CP's share price increased nearly four times, its operating performance went from worst to nearly tied for first with Canadian National, and its credit rating improved from a weak Baa-/BBB- to a strong Baa+/BBB+. While critics often accuse activists of being short-term investors focused primarily on stock buybacks and dividends, CP is a paradigmatic example of the long-term sustainable business performance enhancements and shareholder value creation we have achieved in our core activist holdings.....
    ---------------------------------

    The elimination of any chance for big, stepwise gains in CP from a material acquisition made CP an impossible asset for a hedge fund to continue to hold.

    I don't run a hedge fund.
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    Here's some interesting figures, to say the least:

    Insider trades last 12 months, per 13F filings:

    CP
    Number of Buys: 81
    Number of Sells: 2
    (Those 2 sales were Pershing Square liquidating its entire stake in 2 trades 6 months apart)

    NSC Insiders
    Number of Buys: 8
    Number of Sells: 46

    Which management walks the talk? Has skin in the game to succeed? Is more alligned with shareholders' goals ?
    And which management promises utter BS to the market, while they keep taking their money elsewhere, out of harm's way?
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    "....Contrary to claims by the TCRC and others, CP has fought hard to put the issue of predictable scheduling and better work/life balance for locomotive engineers and conductors on the negotiation table, but has been thwarted at every turn. CP continues to take a leadership position in moving employees to a new, better scheduling model, including requesting regulatory change from Transport Canada to move away from the current and outdated regulation that allows engineers and conductors, at their discretion, to work up to 18 hours within a 24-hour period......

    .....During labour negotiations with the TCRC, CP sought predictable work and mandatory time-off schedules for train crews. This proposal was rejected by the union, which demanded optional time-off schedules, again at the individual employees' discretion, and then led employees to a strike in 2015. In 2015, 93 per cent of CP's train crews worked fewer than 10 hours; the majority worked fewer than eight hours.

    .....In 2015, 40 per cent of the time train crews elected not to take the maximum time off available to them between trips. There are at least 12 ways an employee can elect to take time off from work. To name a few, train crews can take 24 hours off at their home terminal after every round trip, take earned days off, book personal leave and book up to 48 hours rest after specified mileages are attained. If employees are fatigued, they can report themselves as unfit prior to taking a call for work.

    CP is so committed to ensuring that its conductors and engineers get the rest they need that the company recently went to arbitration as a result of its implementing mandatory rest after each run. "
    ------------------------------

    The Canadian government remains fixated on pandering to ignorant Canadian voters, taking the biased opinions and lies of corrupt, dishonest unions, accepting it as fact to then unjustly persecute railways. Pathetic.

    If it had any trace of a spine, any interest in safety, and a half a clue, Canada might not be such a third-world, economic backwater.
    "Politician" is the only career opportunity in Canuckistan, and they're all doing just fine.
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    From a letter sent to the TCRC and copied to Transport Canada:

    "....We are committed to the health of our employees and our operations," said CP president and chief operating officer Keith Creel. "We are requesting a one-third reduction in the maximum operating time of unassigned train and engine employees. As we are unable to get the TCRC leadership to the table to have meaningful discussions on this topic, we must find alternate ways to improve the work/life balance of our employees while enhancing safety across our network."
    -----------
    And again.....Ouch.
    For both the TCRC thugs and Marc Garneau's suit-wearing goons.
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    Interim scorecard for the 'great freight recession':

    CSX: OR deteriorated, from 68.3 to 69
    CP: OR improved, from 59.9 to 57.7
    UNP: OR deteriorated, 60.3 from to 62.1

    Kudos Keith.
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    What season is it in Canada? No, not hockey season.
    Why, it's beat up the railroads season!

    After CP spent much of this past summer pleading and begging the grain farmers and terminal operators to start shipping their grain earlier than the very last minute --- as they idiotically, insanely do every single year, blindly hoping to win big on the price received --- they ignored the advice and screwed themselves. Again.

    After delaying, and waiting, and screwing around for the chance at an extra cent for last year's crop, much of this year's crop is now at risk, after very early snowfalls means that about 30% of this year's crop is still in the field. Wet, and eventually, possibly, worthless.

    Utter fools and eejots.
    I've seen this movie FAR too many times.
    Next step: Farmers cry, government dresses down "meanie" railroads, voters cheer.

    Hooray Canada!
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    For those who caught it.....the cold open skit for SNL this week got Trump's goat pretty good....of course, that's not exactly difficult. The guy is an 8-yr old..a childish one at that....with an oozing open wound for an ego.

    If he had any trace of a layer of skin, that should have healed before puberty.....but alas.

    Anyway, Bobby Moynihan as the poor, clueless sap from Virginia who thanks Trump for soon bringing back all their coal jobs was priceless. Of course, those poor fools don't even get the joke yet.
  • j
    jerry
    Also worth tracking down the SmartLabel call from last Thursday. $CP said they're exploring watermarking. Unfortunately I can't post the link here because it has a coworker of mine's email address as part of the link but this board is pretty resourceful I'm sure someone can find and post

    Objectively it's just hard to imagine we've stumbled across all the smoldering fires, that for every one we've found there's probably another 5 or 10, or that a few of these aren't close to turning into full on blazes, and that once a few of these go up we don't have a full on prairie fire

    The question then is how much the market prices in and when. And add to this, if the new interview on the company website is to be believed, if all of a sudden we have full on prairie fires in 10 different unrelated areas how this stock doesn't just leave this planet
  • j
    juice
    $CP conversation
    How about those earnings lil smokey?? and no more hunter the great....man what a bad day im sorry lil guy it will be ok....
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    I remember how Hunter Harrison was literally laughed at when he put out his OR targets for CP when he took over. Analysts didn't believe he could achieve anywhere near it. Theyn dismissed it as fantasy, propoganda, and exaggeration. Because they chose to instead believe the BS they were fed by John Cleghorn and Fred Green.

    Hunter (quite quickly) got to rub all their noses in it ---- even making powerpoint slides of the dismissive quotes from their related market research notes (without attribution, though everyone in the audience all knew who had written what).

    Skip forward to today. Now its the exact opposite problem.

    Analysts and pundits are evidently lapping up Norfolk Southern's "intentions to improve" ...without any plan, no evidence they are actually capable, and no track record of having ever done it.

    This is how stupid and lemming-like analysts are. Which is why you never depend on their opinion or advice.
    They're far more likely to make you poor than rich.
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    So if you were Jim Creaner, and you decided to cover a sector that you know little about and care even less, who would you get to come on to your show to explain the "secret" of how to make money when freight volumes are just not there?

    Hunter Harrison, the inventor of scheduled service, trailblazing pioneer of unheard-of levels of OR efficiency?

    Luc Jobin, who has continued the trend at CN downward to unheard-of OR levels (thanks partly to Hunter's brilliant EJ&E bypass around the black hole of Chicago)?

    Keith Creel, the next-generation wunderkind in charge of the most improved, currently second most efficiently run railroad in North America ?

    Nope...none of them.

    You'd pick Jim Squires, who runs one of the lowest profit margin, worst run, least improved, most vulnerable to the single worst bulk commodity in rail.

    Because you're a completely clueless imbecile.
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    Today's news

    "......The second incident shortly after at about 5 a.m. on I-95 northbound [in Baltimore]. A tractor-trailer tanker truck was traveling on the roadway, lost control, hit the wall and flipped over the elevated portion of the highway onto the railroad tracks below. When it hit, there was an explosion and a large fire broke out, Ayd said.

    Debris from the crash and explosion landed on both the northbound and southbound lanes of the highway, causing a major pile-up in the northbound lanes....."
    -------------------------------
    Ah, trucks. Using and damaging highways for free, killing the occasional citizen, polluting Obama's precious environment more than any pipeline ever will. But providing unionized jobs for gangsters....err, teamsters.

    No doubt Canadian Minister of Transportation Marc Garneau is checking into whether any CP railcars ever travelled on that section of track, so he can cut an apology checque from the railways' account.
  • D
    Derek
    $CP conversation
    So Pershing Square just sold a bunch of Valeant stock, crystallizing the tax loss to offset the gain made from the CP home run.

    In the hedge fund game, you win some and you lose some.

    But to have all the money made from all the inspired, heavy-lifting it took to turn an aircraft carrier like CP around essentially erased in an instant by a bunch of thieves in suits committing fraud..that's gotta hurt.