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Cameco Corporation (CCJ)

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15,43-0,37 (-2,34%)
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  • N
    Napalm
    $CCJ $URNM $NXE $UUUU

    Yellow Cake raised 110 + 30 million USD lately:

    - 110M USD to buy 3,5M lb U3O8 from Kazatomprom at 28,95 USD/lb. But Kazatomproms operational U3O8 reserve (they aime 6 to 8 months of operational reserve) is too low since early 2020. That’s why Kazatomprom has been buying U3O8 in the spotmarket in 2020 and will buy more in the spot in 2021. ==> They will need to buy those 3,5M lb U3O8 in the spot too to fulfill their sell to Yellow Cake (purchase option: Yellow Cake has the initiative here, not Kazatomprom!)

    - 30M USD to buy U3O8 +-1M lb U3O8 from elswhere then Kazatomprom, meaning directly from the spot.

    That’s 4,5M lb U3O8 that will be purchased WITH PHYSICAL DELIVERY in the spotmarket, while the total annual volume traded in the spotmarket (mainly back and forth transactions WITHOUT PHYSICAL DELIVERY) was:
    - 63,3 million lb in 2019
    - 92 million lb in 2020

    Next: big brother Uranium Participation

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    https://www.nucnet.org/news/five-year-plan-includes-proposals-for-up-to-20-new-reactors-3-5-2021

    China aimes an increase of 40% in their nuclear power capacity between end 2019 (50GW) to 2025 (70GW)

    $NXE $CCJ $URNM

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    It keeps getting better and better!!

    Yellow Cake today:

    "Due to strong investors demand, the company agreed with the joint Bookrunners to increase the size of the Fundraise to approximately USD140 million from approximately USD110 million originally proposed"

    ==> THOSE ADDITIONAL 30 million USD WILL BE USED TO BUY U3O8 IN THE MARKET (From other places then Kazatomprom ==> meaning from spotmarket!!!)

    For more information on this look at my post of yesterday

    $CCJ $DNN $UUUU $URG $PALAF

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    PHASE2!!!

    Yellow Cake just announced its intention to raise a minimum of 110 million USD to purchase at least 3,5M lbs of physical uranium under agreement with Kazatomprom at a price of 28,95$/lb

    That's 3,5M lbs less for utilities!

    Next Uranium Participation...

    After that Phase3...

    And maybe a repeat of phase2 next year

    $NXE $CCJ $DNN $UUUU $URG

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    Next: Uranium Participation announcing the same as what Yellow Cake announced a good week ago

    $UUUU $URG $UEC $PALAF $CCJ

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    It's funny to see that some short term investors get scared from premarket data.

    Premarket data is an easy way to manipulate sentiment of daytraders :-)

    But when you take the time to understand the uranium market, you laugh at this stage.

    Why?

    The uranium market is a very tiny sector to invest in and at this moment professional investors want to take position in several uranium companies (phase1). But they want to invest big amounts and that's not so easy in a tiny sector.

    So let's scare retail investors in the premarket to create volume in favor of professional investors.

    Dear retail investor, your positions can go 20% - 30% lower in the coming weeks/months, but it could also go 30% higher all of a sudden (in one trading day) when:
    ⁃ big positions are taken;
    ⁃ shorters buy the shares needed to give those shares back that they borrowed to be able to short earlier;
    ⁃ the U3O8 price all of a sudden starts to increase fast (phase2 and phase3, Cameco, Orano, Kazatomprom buying U3O8)

    Those short term fluctuations don't matter if you look at the multi-bagger potential in the coming years

    $NXE $DNN $CCJ $UUUU $URG
    Paladin Energy, Peninsula Energy, Boss Resources, Fission Uranium Corp, Goviex Uranium, Global Atomic, UEX Corp, Forsys Metals,...

    Cheers
  • R
    Ron
    I am in at 13.06 and don’t know if I should sell. Does anyone think $CCj can get to 20? Many thanks in advance.
  • N
    Napalm
    Short term contracts through Carry traders will most probably be more difficult in the coming years + additional production distruction

    Carry traders get their uranium mainly from the spot.

    Important uranium producers of the spot decreased their supply to the spot (Uranium One due to Covid 19 shutdowns in Kazakhstan (99,70% of Uranium One production comes from JV's in Kazakhstan!)), or even stopped supplying the spot and became net buyers on the spot (Kazatomprom (new policy of the company)).

    Other uranium producers are net buyers on the spot since +-2017 (UR-energy), since early 2018 (Cameco, Peninsula Energy, ...)

    And based on the mining portfolio of Orano and the uranium loan of +- 5million pounds they made when McArther River was put in care-and-maintenance, I presume Orano also became net buyer on the spot (but that last point is an own interpretation of the situation of Orano, the rest are published facts)

    In the meantime the supply to the spot from the Ranger mine ended early 2021 and Olympic Dam cancelled the idea to increase their production in the future (uranium as a by product for the spot).

    Rossing Mine in 2019: 75% of production solde through LT contracts and 25% to the spot. But after the successful acquisition of Rossing mines by CNNC (25 July 2019) those 25% that went to the spot in the past, will most probably go to CNNC now to supply their existing reactors and future new reactors... Again, uranium supply that will cease to supply the spot (imo)

    Other recent uranium production decrease was:

    December 7, 2020: uranium production suspended in all 3 Ukrainian uranium mines of VostokGOK and possible bankruptcy in the coming months --> an additional loss of 2 million pounds of annual production in 2021

    In the meantime, more and more existing uranium mines are getting depleted, next:
    - Cominak (Orano, Niger, closure March 2021 --> 3million pounds of annual production disappearing)
    - Ranger (ERA, Australia, closure January 2021, more then 4 million pounds of annual supply to the spot that disappeared in the January 2021)

    Carry traders need uranium producers for their uranium needed to honor their supply contracts. Kazatomprom was very clear early 2020: "We are not supplying the spot anymore."

    Tik tok tik tok carry traders
    And by consequence tik tok tik tok utilities...

    $CCJ $UUUU $URG $DNN $PALAF

    We are at the beginning of a multi-year bull run in the uranium sector and more and more investors are starting to notice that.

    Buy and hold for the coming months and couple of years (2 to 5y, but it could all of a sudden happen much sooner)

    Look at my other post about phase1, phase2, phase3

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    TradeTech consultant estimated in 2019 (if everything goes as planned with the projected global uranium production in the future (no mining interruption etc...)):
    - Annual demand rise from +-190 million pounds U3O8 in 2019 to 220 million pounds in 2030,
    - while global maximum annual production of all existing U3O8 mines (all active mines and all existing mines in care and maintenance together) will decrease +- 45 million pounds annual production from 2020 to 2030 due to depleted mines (Ranger and Cominak in 2021, Cigar Lake in 2029, Langer Heinrich in 2030/2031 (if they start producing again in 2023), ...)

    ==> that's a gap of 75 million pounds of annual production needed that has to come from new future mines = more then 4 times the annual production of Cigar Lake = 1,5 times the total annual production of Kazakhstan (Kazatomprom and all JV partner production) = 2,5 times the total annual production attributed to Kazatomprom!!!

    --> even if McArther River, Honeymoon, ... start mining again and kazatomprom starts to produce at full capacity again after 2022, we will still need to fill a gab of 75 million pounds of annual production. --> Conclusion: projects in development like the one of Denison mines, Goviex Uranium, ... will be needed!

    And remember: Going from a deposite discovery to a producing mine takes several years, but going from an uranium deposite discovery to a producing uranium mine takes a couple years longer.

    ==> Not enough new production will be ready on time to fill that gab! ==> Price discovery is coming! The shortage is inevitable and will last for at least a couple of years

    $CCJ $UUUU $URG $DNN $NXE ...

    Uranium etf's : URNM etf, HURA etf, URA etf
  • N
    Napalm
    Fase1: buy stocks (and derivatives) of uranium companies

    Fase2: buy a lot of Uranium Participation and Yellow Cake to push the share price above their NAV ==> Uranium Participation and Yellow Cake buy more U3O8 (and UF6 for Uranium Participation) ==> U3O8 price goes higher

    Fase3: buying U3O8 directly in the spotmarket ==> U3O8 price goes even higher ==> U3O8 price through carry traders becomes more expensive then U3O8 through LT contracts ==> utilities are forced back to the negotiation table for LT contracts!

    That's what is planned by professional commodity investors (based on 2 sources in December/January)

    We'll see

    $UUUU $CCJ $NXE $DNN $URNM
    Paladin Energy, Peninsula Energy, Fission Uranium Corp, UR-energy, UEX corp, Forsys Metals, Bannerman, ...

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    Fyi, for the DD of the new uranium investors.

    In January 2021 globally there were:
    - 442 operable reactors
    - 53 reactors in construction (16 in China, 6 in India, 4 in South Korea, 2 in Pakistan, 2 in Russia, 3 in UAE, 2 in Turkey, 2 in UK, 2 in Slovakia, ...)
    - 98 new reactor constructions planned (39 in China, 14 in India, 21 in Russia, 2 in Turkey, 2 in UK, 2 in Romania, 2 in Hungary, 4 in Egypte, 2 in Uzbekistan, ...)
    - 326 new reactor constructions proposed (168 in China, 28 in India, 23 in Russia, 16 in Saudi Arabia, 6 in Poland, 8 in Turkey, 2 in Uzbekistan, ...)

    In the period December 2020 - January 2021 following happened:
    ⁃ 1 reactor in Sweden was shutdown;
    ⁃ 1 new Indian reactor was connected to the grid;
    ⁃ 2 new reactor constructions started in China

    $DNN $UUUU $CCJ $NXE $URNM

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    Hi everyone,

    A lot of new people are starting to hear about the "future" (starting at the moment) uranium multi-year bull run.

    But a lot of Due Diligence is needed to first understand why the future for uranium globally is bright and second to find the right uranium investment(s) that fits your investors profile (conservative versus dynamic investor, 35y old versus close to pension, a big portfolio (you can take more risk) or a smaller portfolio (you want to take a bit less risk),...)

    If you want to do it right for a long term investment, that takes time.

    But in the uranium sector it can go very fast due to a couple factors (very tiny uranium sector, a uranium/nuclear sector left for dead while in fact it's a growing sector,...)

    But maybe I have a solution that can help you close the gap between the timing of taking a first position and the time needed to do some due dilligence.

    Today there are 4 uranium related etf's:
    ⁃ URA etf (70% pure uranium play)
    ⁃ URNM etf (100% pure uranium play related to Mike Alkin (a person you need to look up for to get good information about the macro fundamentals))
    ⁃ HURA.TO
    ⁃ NLR (uranium and nuclear play)

    For the uranium investment I prefer URNM etf (North Shore Global Uranium mining etf) and HURA.TO

    The big advantage with $URNM, $HURA.TO and $URA is that:
    ⁃ people with a smaller portfolio can also well diversify their uranium mining exposure over +-20 different uranium producers and promising developers by investing in just 1 position in one of those 3 ETF's
    ⁃ conservative investors willing to invest in an uranium equity with a much bigger potential then an investment in Uranium Participation or Yellow Cake (2 positions in those etf's bye the way) without taking too much risk of investing in individual uranium companies, can do that with those 3 etf's
    ⁃ New people can take a first position in one of those 3 etf's after they did some macro due dilligence, but before starting analysing each uranium company individually.

    For the Western European retail investor unfortunately, it's not possible to invest in those 3 etf's anymore due to MIFID2

    So this is also a message to the fundmanagers of those 3 etf's to make the necessairy steps in their prospectus information so that Western European investors can also invest in this uranium bull run through this 3 etf's

    $CCJ $URNM $URA

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    $URNM $URA $HURA.TO $CCJ

    Fyi. Look at the shift happening in the global nuclear and uranium sector.

    Today: French regulator approves 50-year operation of 900 MWe reactors : Regulation & Safety - World Nuclear News

    French nuclear regulator ASN has completed a generic review to extend the lifespan of 32 reactors of the 900 MW fleet for 10 years beyond the initially planned 40 years!

    This is big and in line with "Programmation pluriannuelle de l'énergie (PPE)" of November 2018!

    Remember:
    - each license extension = additional uranium demand that wasn't anticipated before;
    - demand for uranium is price inelastic
    - France is not the only country extending the license of msny reactors (USA, Canada, Russia,...)
    - China, India and other countries are building reactors massively

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    $UUUU $CCJ $DNN $URNM

    Some of the latest signes of operational licence extentions:

    ⁃ Armenia: https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Armenia-plans-to-extend-operations-at-Metsamor-uni
    ⁃ Canada: https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Darlington-unit-3-ready-for-disassembly
    ⁃ Russia: https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Rostov-unit-1-cleared-to-operate-until-2031
    ⁃ Ukrain: https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Ukraines-Zaporozhe-5-cleared-to-operate-until-2030
    ⁃ Virginia USA: https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Dominion-Energy-applies-for-North-Anna-licence-ext
    ⁃ Russia (extension untill new reactors in construction are commissioned): https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/BN-600-licensed-to-operate-until-2025
    ⁃ Canada: https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Bruce-6-refurbishment-begins
    ⁃ Romania: https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Romania-awards-contract-for-Cernavoda-extension
    ⁃ Russia: https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Smolensk-unit-3-gets-licence-extension
    ⁃ ...

    Nuclear Rennaissance in Europe: https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Khmelnitsky-expansion-part-of-European-renaissance

    The saving of reactors in USA from early retirement combined with licence extensions (USA, FR, SP, maybe The Netherlands, Russia,...) is an important game changer for Western utilities!

    3 important consequences caused by widespread reactor licence renewals:

    1. Following important bearish argument is steadily disappearing:

    "The reduction of the global reactors fleet will cause an reduction of the operational U reserves held by utilities"

    With all the new constructions and the widespread license renewals this reduction of operational U reserves will not happen.

    2. Not a single one of the western utilities commited them self in long term purchase agreements beyond their licence period! So every new licence extension causes an additional need for new long term contracts!
    3. The official forcasts (UxC, IAEA,...) don't take into account potential additional future U demand due to licence extensions. They only take the demand from today and future demand of reactors in construction into account. The demande side is by consequence underestimated, because potential additional demand from licence extensions is not certain at the moment of their reports.

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    $URNM $CCJ $U.TO

    Dear utility,

    I hope for you that that Reddit army doesn't get the uranium shortage on their radar in the coming months

    Uranium Participation and Yellow Cake

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    URA etf and HURA etf are going to add new uranium company positions in the coming weeks:

    URA etf will initiate new positions in Bannerman Resources, Peninsula Energy, CGN mining, Deep Yellow, enCore, Goviex Uranium, Greenland minerals, IsoEnergy, Lotus Resources and UEX Corp

    HURA etf will initiate new positions in Azarga Uranium, Forsys Metals, CGN mining, enCore, Goviex Uranium, IsoEnergy, Laramide Resources, Lotus Resources, Mega Uranium, Plateau Energy Metals, Toro Energy and Vimy Resources

    Upward pressure incoming for those names, in addition to the continue growth of URNM etf, URA etf and HURA etf (frequently emit new etf shares to buy more of the underlying positions) resulting in an continu upward pressure for all underlying positions (UR-energy, Energy Fuels, Nexgen, Denison mines, Cameco, ...)

    $CCJ $URA $UEX.TO $GXU.V

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    URA etf and HURA etf are going to add new uranium company positions in the coming weeks:

    URA etf will initiate new positions in Bannerman Resources, Peninsula Energy, CGN mining, Deep Yellow, enCore, Goviex Uranium, Greenland minerals, IsoEnergy, Lotus Resources and UEX Corp

    HURA etf will initiate new positions in Azarga Uranium, Forsys Metals, CGN mining, enCore, Goviex Uranium, IsoEnergy, Laramide Resources, Lotus Resources, Mega Uranium, Plateau Energy Metals, Toro Energy and Vimy Resources

    Upward pressure incoming for those names, in addition to the continue growth of URNM etf, URA etf and HURA etf (frequently emit new etf shares to buy more of the underlying positions) resulting in an continu upward pressure for all underlying positions ($UUUU, $DNN, $NXE, $CCJ, ...)

    Cheers
  • N
    Napalm
    Resources Investment funds and groups entering the U market!

    First. Remember, the total uranium sector market cap today is only +-17 billion USD. That's a very tiny sector!!

    To put this into in perspectif.

    The entire market cap of uranium sector (17 billion$) =
    - 2% of the market cap of Tesla (810 billion$)
    - 40% of the market cap of Barrick Gold (42 billion$)
    - 34% of the market cap of Newmont (50 billion$)
    - 8% of the market cap of Exxon Mobil (205 billion$)
    - 9,5% of the market cap of Chevron (180 billion$)
    - 14,5% of the market cap of Boeing (117 billion$)

    In 2007 the total uranium sector market cap was 150 billion USD in USD of 2007.
    Add to this the inflation between 2007 and today, and you have a easy multi-bagger sector here!

    Second. It's a mathematic fact that the global uranium supply and demand needs a sustainable 60+$/lb U3O8 to get back in equilibrium in the long term.

    At 30$/lb U3O8 only 40% of global annual U3O8 demand can be met by uranium miners!!

    ==> This is not an IF question, this is a WHEN question!

    Third. There are multi signals that the uranium sector fundamentals are getting the attention from professional resources investors now.

    Some signals:

    "Soon we'll be sending private letters to many natural resource investment funds and groups, globally. Our letters, to new groups who might not be aware of the uranium supply debacle, will outline the broken status of the uranium business and the key points for them to perform their own work to see if we reach similair or differing conclusions. We'll offer each group networking opportunities and ways that we believe they can most effectively participate in recapitalizing a broken mining sector and supply chain" Andrew Weekly, CEO SmithWeekly Research

    Larry McDonald on uranium:
    "I am also looking for financial players to get more serious about throwing weight around in this sector. A group with decent capital at a multi-strat HF or a medium sized fund could allocate a few hunderd mill and create their own reality in this sector, IMO. The order of operations would be to buy up positions in call option like U miners, then buy the U trusts trading at discounts and then hit the spot market hard. I think you would make money on all legs of that if you committed a few hunderd mill to it"

    ==> An other investor spending a lot of time in macro and micro due dilligence work on this sector like me, "intercepted" a strategic chats a few weeks ago between professional traders of different financial institutions talking about preparing themself to come in action in the uranium sector. And like Larry McDonald saying to first buy the uranium company stocks and related financial instruments, second buying the U trusts (Uranium Participation, Yellow Cake) and then buying Uranium in the spotmarket (Professional investors with 3000000 million USD (100000lb x 30$/lb) on hand can buy physical uranium --> the minimum buying is 100000lb U3O8!)

    In the meantime the uranium etf's need to buy more underlying uranium company stocks and issue additional etf shares to keep up with the demand from investors ==> That's a big upward pressure on all those underlying uranium companies in which those etf's invest today and in the coming months (and couple of years).

    For instance:

    - "Investors were piling into 100% Pure-Play "North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF" $URNM on NYSE yesterday, adding another 175,000 ETF shares - Now at 1,325,000 & AUM US$60.3M, over 20X higher than its US$3M inception just over a year ago"

    - "Global X Uranium/Nuclear ETF $URA on NYSE added another 300,000 shares yesterday to bring their issued to 17.1M with US$276M in Net Assets - A 160% increase from its March low"

    Conclusion: A lot of money is coming into a very tiny sector to invest into. Multi-bagger moves higer coming.

    Be prepared and be patient.
    Don't try to swing trade uranium stocks.

    If you do, you will most probably be taken by surprise and by consequence miss the biggest part of the bull trend

    $CCJ $UUUU $URG $PALAF

    $URNM etf, URA etf, HURA etf

    Bannerman Resources, Peninsula Energy, Boss Resources, ...
    Denison mines, Fission Uranium Corp, Global Atomic, Goviex Uranium, Forsys Metals, UEX Corp, Deep Yellow, Vimy Resources, ...
    Energy Fuels, UR-energy, Cameco, Paladin Energy,...

    Cheers
  • T
    Tom
    $DNN conversation
    $PALAF is looking good. Finally busted through the .30 resistance. $UUUU $DNN $UEC $URG $CCJ
  • N
    Napalm
    The potential of Forsys Metals is underestimated by the market (imo).

    Why?

    First. Chinese utilities started renewing their long term U3O8 supply by purchasing existing mines!

    CNNC bought a 66% stake in Rossing mine in Namibia (July 2019) (Total production cost > 65$/lb U3O8)

    CGN is in the process of buying 49% of Ortalyk (2 Kazak mines: Mynkuduk and Zhalapak uranium deposits) from Kazatomprom
    (Deal completion: +-30 June 2021)

    Husab mine in Namibia is 90% in the hands of CGN, Uranium Resources and the China-Africa Development Fund (Total production cost > 45$/lb U3O8)

    The chinese utilities like Namibia!

    Second. Forsys Metals:
    ⁃ Norasa asset is situated 35 km from Rossing;
    ⁃ has a Definitive Feasibility Study since March 2015;
    ⁃ Mineral Reserves: 90.70 million lb U3O8;
    ⁃ Operational cost: 34,72$/lb U3O8;
    ⁃ already received a Mining Licence for Norasa;
    ⁃ has also other permits: Environmental Clearance, Desalination,...

    Third. With a stockprice of 0,38CAD, Forsys Metals is only valued at 0,40$/U3O8 lb in reserve by the market compared to:
    ⁃ U3O8 spotprice around 30$/lb today;
    ⁃ U3O8 price of at least 60$/lb needed to get the supply and demand back in equilibrium

    The Chinese utilities don't care very much about the U3O8 offtake price (We see it with their purchase of 66% of Rossing in 2019), they care about the uranium supply security for their fast growing numbers of nuclear reactors!

    For me, Forsys Metals has all the potential to be the next takeover by CNNC or CGN.

    But watch out! The Forsys Metals share is not so liquid, so if you are interested, I suggest to not take a to big stake in it! (Because you need to be able to get out of it too in a few years from now)

    In my opinion 2%-5% (for big diversified uranium exposures, like me (I have more 20 different uranium positions)) to max 10% (for smaller uranium exposures (for instance a dynamic investor with 10.000 to 50.000 USD invested in uranium related equities)

    My own opinion of course

    Note: HURA etf has started a position in Forsys Metals in February 2021

    $CCJ $UEC $NXE $URA

    Cheers