BP p.l.c. (BP)

At some point when the MMs and whales are finished stealing shares, oil stocks have to trade closer to reasonable valuations. For kicks, I calculated 2021 & 2022 combined average PE ratios (based on Non- GAAP quarterly EPS consensus estimates in my Merrill Edge trading platform with today's prices) for the O & G stocks I own.

$CPE : 2.93 (quarterly projections probably don't include recent acquisition)
$LPI : 2.29
$BCEI : 5 (also pays dividend)
$BP : 7.95 (also pays dividend)
$SBOW : 1.96
$WTI : 4.29

Good luck longs. And shorts, I've been enjoying your meaningless price targets that you post like every 10 minutes on these boards that include no data to back them up whatsoever. Enjoyable comedy!

Demand is coming back faster than supply and we're going to need more supply to meet that demand," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, would need to boost output to meet demand set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022.

"OPEC+ needs to open the taps to keep the world oil markets adequately supplied," the Paris-based energy watchdog said.

$SU $CNQ $ENB $COP $BP $OXY $VET $XOM $TOT $CVX $MPC $EOG $CLR $EPD $E $KMI $PSX $HAL $PTR $SNP $WMB $BKR $EC $IMO $CQP $MMP $TRP $XOG

(Bloomberg) -- Gasoline demand surged to a a record high as Americans took to the road for the July 4th holiday weekend.
Gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, rose to 10 million barrels a day the week ended July 2, the highest in data going back to 1990, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Demand has regained its footing as vaccinations and easing economic restrictions propel more Americans to resume their pre-pandemic lifestyles. Oil prices have risen almost 50% this year as U.S. refineries run close to full-bore to keep up with fuel demand. While the U.S. recovery quickens, the world’s largest oil producers can’t agree on how to supply the market with Saudi Arabia advocating for tempered supply increases given the potential headwinds that still exist.
“Demand is bucking with the price spikes and summer driving, but with high gas prices and inflation, the picture in September may look different,” said Trisha Curtis, co-founder of PetroNerds.
The moving average for demand also climbed higher, reaching the most since late 2019. But on a seasonal basis the figure was still about 150,000 barrels a day short of July 2019, suggesting the market still has some room to recover.
U.S. motorists hit the road in large numbers despite contending with the highest gasoline prices since 2014. The average pump price Thursday was $3.14 a gallon, according to auto club AAA.
© 2021 Bloomberg L.P.

$CLR $RIG $OXY $COP $VLO $HFC $NOV $HP $RES $MUR $XOM $CVX $BP $KMI $MRO $DVN $PXD $HAL $BKR $SLB $MPC

"Even if Iran is able to add to global supply, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) still feels confident about the oil market."
"Even aggressively assuming a restart in July, we estimate that Brent prices would still reach $80 per barrel in fourth quarter 2021," the bank said in a note.

Goldman Sachs sees it now. $80 is in my opinion a conservative estimate.

$SU $OXY $CNQ $ENB $COP $PSX $BP $XOM $CVX $MMP $EPD $LNG $EOG $DVN $FANG $PDCE $WLL $ERF

Hi-ho, Kermit here! Market strategists are bracing for the biggest jump in oil demand ever after drivers returned to the roads en masse.

Goldman Sachs has predicted a 14pc jump in commodity prices over the next six months, pushing a broad measure of metals and oil up to its highest level in more than six years.
$BP $SU $CNQ $IMO $ENB $OXY

Global Oil Demand Is Back Above 100 Million Barrels a Day - BP

So, demand is back to pre-COVID levels while jet fuel is still far from full recovery. Sweet!

I remember Citi saying in mid-2020 that oil demand will NEVER again reach pre-COVID levels. Their humble pie is served.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-says-oil-demand-back-100639293.html

$CPE $LPI $OIH $XOM $CVX $COP $RIG $KOS $SU $BP

OPEC+ abandoned its meeting without a deal, tipping the cartel into crisis and leaving the oil market facing tight supplies and rising prices.

Several days of tense talks failed to resolve a bitter dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, delegates said, asking not to be named because the information wasn’t public. The group didn’t agree on a date for its next meeting, according to a statement from OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo.

The most immediate effect of the breakdown is that, unless an agreement can be salvaged, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies won’t increase production for August. That will deprive the global economy of vital extra supplies as demand recovers rapidly from the coronavirus pandemic.

$SU $CNQ $ENB $COP $BP $OXY $VET $XOM $TOT $CVX $MPC $EOG $CLR $EPD $PTR $PBR $E $KMI $ET $ARX

I'm reposting Jim's post from the SU conversation. It is extremely interesting to understanding the price movement in oil yesterday:

$SU conversation
Short data: March18 ,2021

Today, Short sellers employed all of their tools in order to bring oil stocks and future contracts down.After failing to create a sell off in oil stocks ,they started to shorting April and May contacts for future oil.They brought WTI to 59$ from 64$.Biggest single drop since April2020.

As you see in below data, compare to share price drop, the volume was extremely low.
This volume does not match with share price drop.
That was just a pure and irresponsible manipulation.

Most media in the World censored this extraordinary event in capital market.
We are talking about tens of Billions of $ contracts and options which they are trying to kill them, plus covering their short position with creating fake sell off(scaring shareholders).

So far, we haven’t had sell off.Low volume.
They prefer spent and burn few billion dollars and sell stocks at discount, but meanwhile save tens of billions of money in other side.

Extreme and irresponsible manipulation which will have consequences in future of oil market ,especially in next OPEC+ meeting and their next policy.

Explanation about below data:
Vol: The total volume numbers of first hand shares which is coming into market for trading.It is different than total volume that you see in yahoo or elsewhere.Because in total volume one share can change many hands between traders.But original amount of coming shares and shorted shares are constant for day.

For Canadian Stocks the volume is just for US market.
SU : (Vol 2.326M shares), (Short 0.769M shares ), (33% of coming shares for trade)SU :
XOM (Vol 12M ), (Short 5.715M ), (48% )
CLR (Vol 1.129M ), (Short 0.703M ), (63% )
CVX (Vol 3.363M ), (Short 1.784M ), (53% )
OXY (Vol 8.277M ), (Short 5.32M ), (64% )
CPG (Vol 0.693M ), (Short 0.314M ), (45% )
CNQ (Vol 0.664M ), (Short 0.217M ), (33% )
ENB (Vol 0.885M ), (Short 0.57M ), (64% )
BP (Vol 3.458M ), (Short 1.265M ), (37% )
CVE (Vol 1.543M ), (Short 0.978M ), (64% )
CDEV (Vol 7.627M ), (Short 4.025M ), (53% )
FANG (Vol 1.087M ), (Short 0.505M ), (47% )
CPE (Vol 1.615M ), (Short 0.697M ), (43% )
MRO (Vol 10.09M ), (Short 5.662M ), (56% )
SLB (Vol 4.484M ), (Short 1.632M ), (36% )
HAL (Vol 2.948M ), (Short 0.971M ), (33% )
RIG (Vol 12.58M ), (Short 7.285M ), (58% )
TOT (Vol 0.553M ), (Short 0.378M ), (68% )
PXD (Vol 0.859M ), (Short 0.51M ), (60% )
COP (Vol 2.865M ), (Short 0.808M ), (28% )
BKR (Vol 1.79M ), (Short 0.659M ), (37% )
LPI (Vol 0.417M ), (Short 0.181M ), (44% )
PDS (Vol 0.054M ), (Short 0.02M ), (38% )

#XOM, #CLR , #CVX , #OXY , #CPG , #CNQ , #ENB , #BP , #CVE , #CDEV , #FANG , #CPE, #MRO , #SLB, #HAL, #RIG , #TOT, #PXD , #COP, #BKR , #LPI , #PDS