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ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Echtzeitpreis. Währung in USD
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575,96+13,55 (+2,41%)
Börsenschluss: 04:00PM EDT
574,60 -1,36 (-0,24%)
Nachbörse: 07:59PM EDT

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  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    The most important thing is to wait sincerely. $ASML $VENA
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    All the waiting is worth it. $ASML $VENA
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    The constructed market has tended to be stable. $ASML $GPCO
  • N
    Nicholas
    Venus Acquisition Corporation
    $VENA $ASML $XOM GO up, as usual. Dip buying soon.
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    Slow down the upward trend, it's too anxious $ASML $VENA
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    The stability of the recovery is higher than everything else. $ASML $VENA
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    Will next week be a bright start $ASML $VENA
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    Unstable mood began to spread again. $ASML $VENA
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    Don't immerse yourself in the lost environmental market. $ASML $VENA
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    A perfect end to the week $ASML $VENA
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    Maybe it won't be too late. Here comes the policy. $ASML $VENA
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    The upper line is very high $ASML $GPCO
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    Don't want to let it out for some air. $ASML $VENA
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    Need to provide a better market environment $ASML $GPCO
  • r
    rooney
    Twitter公司
    If can't continue the market, these are not very useful $ASML $VENA
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    Operation of asphyxiation $ASML $GPCO
  • r
    rooney
    艾司摩爾控股公司
    It is impossible to distinguish the current market dynamics $ASML $GPCO
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    So Lam reported a quarter below expectations. And the problem was ... supply chain issues. AMAT said they were having issues last in their last quarterly report, ASML said they were having their own issues with the supply chain just a few weeks ago.

    So are the supply chain issues a problem? I don't think so. They are a blessing in disguise.

    It means $AMAT, $LRCX, $ASML can't ramp up production at some extreme rate. They are being forced into a ramp which is incremental. The risk of a capacity glut (which I never bought as an issue for at least 2-3 years), is less likely than ever.

    Demand remains enormous and demand is the most important factor in pretty much every business. Filling the gap between supply and demand will take a long while. While this occurs, all these companies will steadily increase sales and (most likely) margins.

    These companies simply can't meet demand right now, but for how long? This isn't getting fixed in 2022. And probably not in 2023.

    The big worry is that these semi capex companies will yo-yo between thru the roof demand and no demand at all (the old line -- "will we be on mandatory overtime right up until the layoffs?"). The supply chain challenges severely limit the chances of excess fab capacity in the next few years.

    Sometimes bad news is bad news. The LRCX report wasn't bad news, though some headlines will interpret it that way. A more careful look paints a clearer picture.

    AMAT, Lam & ASML are all telling the same story (not sure if $KLAC will say something similar, but I expect they will). They are limited by the supply chains in how fast they can produce systems to meet demand. That's about the best possible "problem" they could have
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    So a few months back, $AMAT signals they are having supply chain issues and the stock takes a hit. And then the market forgets about it, and AMAT, $LRCX, $ASML, $KLAC all ride higher along with a bunch of other semi capex sorts.

    In the last 10 days or so, ASML, LRCX, KLAC all said they were dealing with supply chain issues (turns out, it wasn't just an AMAT issue) and each issued a forecast below what Wall St had hoped. And each time one company would miss, the entire sector would get slammed. They all got slammed multiple times for a single problem. The same problem.

    ASML is down over 100 points. On the day ASML earnings came out, Lam dropped 50 & AMAT dropped 15!! Then Lam dropped another 75 over the next week and when they announced earnings, it dropped another 40. Slammed multiple times for the same problem. After Lam announced, both KLAC & AMAT dropped another 4%.

    Friday will be an interesting day, we'll see if the market is finally "getting it". After market close today, KLAC said the next quarter would be down a bit. Will they get punished again? They are already down 80 points since the ASML report. Will Lam and AMAT get hit again?

    Each company has gotten punished multiple times. No doubt, when AMAT reports in mid-Feb, they'll tell the same story, that supply chains are limiting near term production. Will the share price get punished again? Its already down 20%.

    Thing is, the chip shortage can't be fixed without massive investment in chip making operations. And repeatedly, we're being told this is a multi-year fix.

    Now Lam and AMAT sit at forward PE of around 15, KLAC a tad higher and ASML closer to 30 (the benefit of being a quasi monopoly in an areas of desperate need). Given the massive long-term demand, these are all dirt cheap compared to almost everything else out there.

    The old saying is the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I guess. But to be clear, it is irrational to mete out multiple punishments for the same issue. The result is the semi capex suppliers have an long runway for strong earnings, even if each expects the upcoming quarter to be down slightly. These companies are on sale. Big time.
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    Guess I missed this one yesterday. TSLA down 8% today because of below expectation forecast. Why is their forecast below expectation? Musk was quite clear: they can't get all the chips they need.

    I get why the chip capex companies are going down at the moment because the news flow says they won't make as much money in the near term as the market hoped. That's a relative move.

    What makes no sense is where these companies are an absolute basis. $LRCX, $AMAT are trading around a 15 PE, even though can't come close to meeting demand. $ASML is a bit higher PE since they are a quasi monopoly. But still not that high given the entire chip business is gated by ASML shipments. And they can't ramp up as fast as they'd like because .... supply chain.

    Applied, Lam, KLA stocks should be 25-30 forward PE because they are so essential and this demand >> supply is almost certain to continue for at least 2 more years (ASML said that'd be about the minimum before it sees balance returning).