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Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)

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86,27-4,71 (-5,18%)
Börsenschluss: 04:00PM EDT
86,48 +0,21 (+0,24%)
Nachbörse: 07:59PM EDT
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  • L
    Leo
    Applied Materials, Inc.
    It's all about feeling. $AMAT $VENA
  • a
    amini
    Applied Materials, Inc.
    Everything is going in the right direction. $AMAT $VENA
  • r
    rooney
    Applied Materials, Inc.
    Need to overcome difficulties
    $AMAT $VENA
  • n
    nycapitalist
    $AMAT conversation
    Well, I thought today (Friday) would be deep red day. Happy to be very wrong. Nice recovery for $amat and $lrcx . Have a great weekend! A long weekend for those of us in the U.S.. Enjoy.
  • n
    nycapitalist
    $AMAT conversation
    Interesting. $amat and $lrcx up nicely with the only news being bad news ( $nvda ) and that was up as well. To use recent history as a guide, Friday will be a major selloff day because... well, just because. Maybe the trend is reversing? We'll see. Stay tuned. BTW, Applied's CC after earnings was actually quite positive as orders remain massive and backlog grows. China is supposed to start re-opening Shanghai so we will see how that goes.
  • r
    rooney
    Applied Materials, Inc.
    It's been quiet for a while, but I still can't hold it back. $AMAT $VENA
  • L
    Laura
    $SOXL conversation
    $AMAT reports earnings tomorrow. We shall see what that does for $SOXL
  • r
    rooney
    Applied Materials, Inc.
    Don't waste your time $AMAT $VENA
  • r
    rooney
    Applied Materials, Inc.
    Don't come down again. Stay there $AMAT $VENA
  • H
    Hawdet
    WiMi Hologram Cloud Inc.
    $WIMI $AMAT So far so gooooood!
  • r
    rooney
    Applied Materials, Inc.
    The new trend continues to pay attention $AMAT $VENA
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    "Currently we see no signs of any weakening in our customer base. Zero,. And even if demand weakens, there is a big gap between the demand and our capacity."

    Peter Winnik, ASML CEO in their conference call

    I keep saying it. At a fundamental level, demand for digital systems is increasing every year and there is no obvious end in sight. Not this year, next year and unlikely the year after. The more likely scenario is a bunch of major demand drivers will come into play (example: someone described cars becoming data centers on wheels, and that cycle hasn't even begun) and chip supply will remain tight for 5-10 years. Maybe not as tight as its been recently, but any oversupply is likely to be infrequent and short-lived for the next decade or so.

    The underlying demand is just so incredibly large.

    Which is good for $AMAT, $ASML, $KLAC, $LRCX among others. All extremely undervalued.
  • r
    rooney
    Applied Materials, Inc.
    I have suffered a lot, money is supreme $AMAT $VENA
  • n
    nycapitalist
    $LRCX conversation
    Interesting. This not being down 10% AH after a miss tells you something about how much bad news is baked in IMO. Seems like it was expected. In the past year, semi stocks have been bludgeoned after hours when they crush earnings and guidance is slightly down. Lam missed and guided down and is down 1.5%. We'll see how badly it is punished tomorrow. Positive $ASML news may also be tempering the response. Perhaps the semis are bottoming here? Time will tell. $amat
  • r
    rooney
    Applied Materials, Inc.
    A fidgety market needs to calm down $AMAT $VENA
  • n
    nycapitalist
    $AMAT conversation
    Should there be a move on Taiwan from China (let's hope not), the reality is that semiconductor equipment companies like Applied would see an enormous ramp in business going forward. New sources of chip production would have to be built out and an urgency by nations to have domestic chip production would be a top priority. The main problem for $amat $lrcx etc. would be expanding capacity to meet the demand. This would be for many years. The U.S. right now is making a half-hearted attempt to ramp production, but that would ramp exponentially given a Taiwan crisis. JMHO
  • r
    rooney
    Applied Materials, Inc.
    need to prove that it is credible before the disk $AMAT $VENA
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    Once again, AMAT hits the $140 area and gets rejected. Happened in April, in early June, in late June and now again in August.

    Still think the prospects are terrific, but what could they possibly say in their earnings which would get this thing to breakout?

    Even the Micron story (memory pricing softening) doesn't really add up. Micron just reported their order filling time is at a record high, 20 weeks, meaning they aren't keeping up with demand. How does 'not keeping up with demand' = 'weakness ahead'?

    I get a sense the market is wanting to pounce on bad news for $LRCX, $KLAC, $AMAT and others -- as if they want to get ahead of some big downward spiral. But that isn't coming, demand is explosive and huge new markets are still early. 5G phones have barely begun to sell. Autonomous driving is a few years from adding massive new demand. Computational medicine is bigger than almost any chip market ever -- and that's coming, too.

    The markets can't drive it down too much while the results are stellar. But forward P/E in the mid-teens makes zero sense. Not when the upside is so large. So I expect continued aggressive buybacks and stellar results. And perhaps some day, the fearful will realize that chips are essential to the future, and stop the downward pressure on these excellent companies.
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    So Lam reported a quarter below expectations. And the problem was ... supply chain issues. AMAT said they were having issues last in their last quarterly report, ASML said they were having their own issues with the supply chain just a few weeks ago.

    So are the supply chain issues a problem? I don't think so. They are a blessing in disguise.

    It means $AMAT, $LRCX, $ASML can't ramp up production at some extreme rate. They are being forced into a ramp which is incremental. The risk of a capacity glut (which I never bought as an issue for at least 2-3 years), is less likely than ever.

    Demand remains enormous and demand is the most important factor in pretty much every business. Filling the gap between supply and demand will take a long while. While this occurs, all these companies will steadily increase sales and (most likely) margins.

    These companies simply can't meet demand right now, but for how long? This isn't getting fixed in 2022. And probably not in 2023.

    The big worry is that these semi capex companies will yo-yo between thru the roof demand and no demand at all (the old line -- "will we be on mandatory overtime right up until the layoffs?"). The supply chain challenges severely limit the chances of excess fab capacity in the next few years.

    Sometimes bad news is bad news. The LRCX report wasn't bad news, though some headlines will interpret it that way. A more careful look paints a clearer picture.

    AMAT, Lam & ASML are all telling the same story (not sure if $KLAC will say something similar, but I expect they will). They are limited by the supply chains in how fast they can produce systems to meet demand. That's about the best possible "problem" they could have
  • p
    phil
    $AMAT conversation
    So a few months back, $AMAT signals they are having supply chain issues and the stock takes a hit. And then the market forgets about it, and AMAT, $LRCX, $ASML, $KLAC all ride higher along with a bunch of other semi capex sorts.

    In the last 10 days or so, ASML, LRCX, KLAC all said they were dealing with supply chain issues (turns out, it wasn't just an AMAT issue) and each issued a forecast below what Wall St had hoped. And each time one company would miss, the entire sector would get slammed. They all got slammed multiple times for a single problem. The same problem.

    ASML is down over 100 points. On the day ASML earnings came out, Lam dropped 50 & AMAT dropped 15!! Then Lam dropped another 75 over the next week and when they announced earnings, it dropped another 40. Slammed multiple times for the same problem. After Lam announced, both KLAC & AMAT dropped another 4%.

    Friday will be an interesting day, we'll see if the market is finally "getting it". After market close today, KLAC said the next quarter would be down a bit. Will they get punished again? They are already down 80 points since the ASML report. Will Lam and AMAT get hit again?

    Each company has gotten punished multiple times. No doubt, when AMAT reports in mid-Feb, they'll tell the same story, that supply chains are limiting near term production. Will the share price get punished again? Its already down 20%.

    Thing is, the chip shortage can't be fixed without massive investment in chip making operations. And repeatedly, we're being told this is a multi-year fix.

    Now Lam and AMAT sit at forward PE of around 15, KLAC a tad higher and ASML closer to 30 (the benefit of being a quasi monopoly in an areas of desperate need). Given the massive long-term demand, these are all dirt cheap compared to almost everything else out there.

    The old saying is the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I guess. But to be clear, it is irrational to mete out multiple punishments for the same issue. The result is the semi capex suppliers have an long runway for strong earnings, even if each expects the upcoming quarter to be down slightly. These companies are on sale. Big time.