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Wall Street has had a terrible start to the year
Investment banks have had an awful start to the year.
Dealmakers are blaming market volatility for a slowdown in mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings. No company has gone public in US markets in 2016, making January the first IPO-free month since September 2011, according to Dealogic.
And the results are similar across all investment-banking businesses.
To illustrate just how weak the banks' performance was last month, Credit Suisse analyst Susan Roth Katzke put together a chart showing industry trends based on the run rate for the first quarter of 2016.
Virtually every business was trending down — both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter.
(Credit Suisse)
According to the note, announced M&A volumes are tracking down 39% year-on-year, though the backlog is up 14%. Equity underwriting volumes are tracking down 48% on "materially lower IPO volumes," while debt underwriting is tracking down 20% year-on-year.
The note said:
Well… it was far from what we'd hoped for coming into the new year. Macro risk/risk aversion is taking its toll, with asset prices largely down, equity and fixed income funds experiencing net outflows, and most investment banking activity well off both year ago and fourth quarter levels. There's some silver lining in that trading volumes are up, both year over year and quarter to quarter — how profitable will that activity prove to have been… the lack of primary activity and negative asset price changes don't help, but at least there's activity. All in, we'll need to see some stabilization in prices (oil, equities and credit) to re-build/sustain the confidence needed to support our capital markets revenue forecasts.
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